NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	8.5 [178]		MVP	Malik Sealy (MIN): +23.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Comeback	3.5 [207]		LVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): -42.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.17	0.07	0.10	0.01	17	63%	0.22	1	-0.05	9	78%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	6	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Avery Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	19	42%	-0.06	1	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Jerome Kersey	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.09	-0.13	0.03	9	46%	-0.15	3	-0.10	6	83%	-0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.42	-0.13	-0.32	-0.02	9	11%	-0.41	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.00	11	81%	0.33	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	8	78%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Andrae Patterson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	7	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0.02,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	21	50%	0.04	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	12	29%	-0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	0.01	19	42%	-0.10	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	27.4	14.6	22.2	1.7	41.8	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +57.8%

MIN +2.8%

SAS -10.4%

MIN +12.7%

SAS -12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.2	92.6	101.1	101.7
season	15.5	15.1		101.6	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.1	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	14.5	16.7	14.7	15.3
MIN	13.7	18.3	17.6	14.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	15	15	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-10	17	15.6	15.3	0.34	18.6	15.3	3.32
Jerome Kersey	33	31	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.16	8	-11	19	13.5	16.3	-2.71	16.4	15.6	0.80
Samaki Walker	12	10	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-3	3	13.2	15.6	-2.36	17.0	15.7	1.31
Malik Rose	36	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.21	6	-9	15	13.7	16.3	-2.57	16.4	15.5	0.84
Terry Porter	39	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.20	5	-8	13	14.1	16.1	-2.01	15.8	15.8	-0.00
David Robinson	57	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.22	-9	6	-15	16.8	13.0	3.82	15.2	16.9	-1.78
Tim Duncan	85	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.45	-3	0	-3	15.3	15.8	-0.54	15.9	14.9	1.05
Avery Johnson	81	76	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	5	-13	15.6	13.9	1.71	15.8	15.9	-0.11
Jaren Jackson	55	53	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	7	-17	15.7	14.8	0.93	15.1	16.9	-1.84
Mario Elie	62	59	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	8	-19	16.3	13.5	2.71	15.6	16.4	-0.80

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	47	53	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.09	22	-19	41	14.7	17.1	-2.46	15.7	14.8	0.91
Terrell Brandon	86	90	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	0	3	15.7	17.7	-2.01	15.1	20.0	-4.94
Malik Sealy	82	86	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	0	3	15.7	16.9	-1.14	15.3	15.2	0.10
Kevin Garnett	73	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	15.4	17.8	-2.38	15.9	12.8	3.16
Sam Mitchell	65	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	7	-11	15.4	16.9	-1.45	15.0	16.2	-1.21
Anthony Peeler	40	45	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	1	1	17.5	14.5	3.04	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Andrae Patterson	3	3	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.01	1	2	-1	22.3	15.6	6.72	7.0	15.6	-8.59
Tom Hammonds	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	3	-3	13.4	16.0	-2.61	18.8	15.1	3.75
Joe Smith	47	47	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.37	-15	18	-33	17.1	14.4	2.66	15.0	15.6	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.84,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 83, BOS 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.95,1	93.0%
PHX 85, HOU 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.94,0.99,1	92.7%
LAC 89, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.6,0.54,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.94,1,1	92.4%