NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	124		Excitement	8.0 [219]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +32.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	117		Comeback	2.4 [451]		LVP	Brian Evans (NJN): -19.2%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.33,0.33,0.32	0.12	0.22	0.01	14	78%	0.41	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	10	77%	0.20	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	13	53%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.02	15	76%	0.23	3	-0.15	8	87%	0.01
Michael Cage	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Vaughn	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	9	62%	0.11	3	-0.12	6	83%	0.01
Brian Evans	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.06	-0.15	-0.02	4	30%	-0.18	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.15

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.00	11	75%	0.18	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.07
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.09	-0.02	17	50%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.04	17	66%	0.13	3	-0.15	7	71%	-0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	16	64%	0.15	5	-0.18	4	100%	0.05
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerald Honeycutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.09	-0.01	9	67%	0.08	3	-0.15	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	36%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.5	26.5	15.7	27.6	1.8	29.6	124.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +52.6%

MIL -1.3%

MIL -2.1%

NJN +7.8%

MIL -7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIL	NBA	NJN	MIL	NBA
this game	13.8	14.9	15.6	122.8	117.0	102.5
season	15.6	16.0		104.9	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.2		102.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	11.8	16.0	13.0	14.8	13.8
MIL	13.5	16.0	15.3	15.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	55	58	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-7	21	13.8	13.7	0.18	15.5	14.1	1.45
Sam Cassell	80	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-2	11	12.6	18.0	-5.30	14.5	16.5	-2.04
Michael Cage	67	68	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-6	19	14.5	12.4	2.11	15.5	13.6	1.98
Keith Van Horn	78	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	4	-1	13.3	15.4	-2.18	14.9	14.9	-0.00
Kerry Kittles	78	76	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	3	1	12.8	17.1	-4.32	14.3	16.7	-2.42
Sherman Douglas	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	6	-5	17.1	12.5	4.64	17.4	13.9	3.45
David Vaughn	7	7	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	5	-3	10.7	14.0	-3.26	12.4	15.1	-2.67
Brian Evans	46	42	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	13	-19	13.7	13.8	-0.18	14.1	15.5	-1.45
Lucious Harris	16	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	8	-9	18.2	12.9	5.27	15.4	14.8	0.60
Chris Gatling	50	48	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	11	-15	14.0	13.5	0.49	14.4	15.4	-1.03

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerald Honeycutt	41	43	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.03	8	-15	23	14.3	15.3	-1.00	15.6	12.4	3.18
Elliot Perry	22	22	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-9	11	15.8	14.7	1.16	17.2	12.8	4.38
Jamie Feick	16	16	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.01	2	-9	11	14.6	15.0	-0.41	12.6	14.0	-1.34
Ray Allen	96	96	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	1	-9	14.8	18.0	-3.22	13.3	23.0	-9.73
Ervin Johnson	82	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.29	-8	1	-9	15.2	13.4	1.79	13.4	15.3	-1.86
Armen Gilliam	89	90	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.29	-10	3	-13	14.6	17.1	-2.45	13.6	15.0	-1.40
Terrell Brandon	82	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.35	-8	1	-9	14.8	15.3	-0.52	13.4	15.5	-2.07
Michael Curry	72	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	6	-19	15.3	13.9	1.36	13.5	14.4	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.47,0.61,0.45,0.17,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	92.2%
SAC 96, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	91.6%
MIL 109, BKN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.53,0.36,0.33,0.01,0	91.3%