NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	112		Excitement	6.4 [484]		MVP	Dee Brown (TOR): +17.8%
Washington Wizards	120		Comeback	2.2 [940]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (TOR): -13.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.22	0.03	0.07	18	79%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.01	-0.04	11	46%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
John Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.01	0.05	16	58%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Slater	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	45%	-0.05	1	-0.01	8	37%	-0.07
John Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.04	0.03	12	63%	0.01	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	9	21%	-0.10	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.07	-0.02	14	50%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	14	63%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
God Shammgod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	1	83%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	3	0%	-0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	17	43%	-0.09	1	-0.02	10	50%	-0.05
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	19	50%	0.01	5	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	29.5	15.2	21.6	2.4	32.6	128.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -2.5%

WAS +8.2%

WAS +34.8%

WAS +11.0%

TOR -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	14.5	12.9	15.6	106.7	114.3	102.5
season	15.5	15.1		98.7	102.8
opponent	15.6	14.8		102.2	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.5	13.5	16.9	13.4	14.5
WAS	13.2	12.2	13.7	12.8	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	16	16	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-13	18	11.9	14.9	-3.01	13.6	12.8	0.73
John Wallace	54	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-14	20	12.7	16.4	-3.67	12.6	13.3	-0.72
Tracy McGrady	79	78	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.35	10	-18	28	13.7	17.0	-3.34	13.4	11.7	1.72
Alvin Williams	40	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-8	8	13.3	15.2	-1.92	12.2	13.3	-1.11
Gary Trent	68	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	1	-10	14.7	14.0	0.75	13.4	12.1	1.35
Marcus Camby	70	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	14.8	13.9	0.86	13.6	11.6	1.96
Dee Brown	88	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.25	-5	-3	-2	14.4	15.1	-0.68	13.1	12.2	0.91
Reggie Slater	55	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	9	-26	16.4	12.3	4.10	12.0	14.0	-2.06
Chauncey Billups	55	57	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	0.02	-25	17	-42	16.6	12.2	4.36	12.3	13.7	-1.37

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	47	46	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-6	20	13.6	12.4	1.10	14.3	14.6	-0.25
Calbert Cheaney	92	91	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-3	14	12.9	13.1	-0.15	14.1	16.9	-2.74
Chris Webber	66	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-5	18	12.4	13.8	-1.40	15.7	12.4	3.30
Juwan Howard	88	88	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-2	12	13.2	11.7	1.48	14.9	12.5	2.40
Rod Strickland	86	88	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	7	-6	13.8	9.1	4.69	15.6	8.9	6.69
Darvin Ham	12	12	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	9	-10	10.3	13.3	-2.95	8.2	15.3	-7.13
Chris Whitney	18	18	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.12	-1	9	-10	11.1	13.3	-2.28	12.9	14.8	-1.86
God Shammgod	11	10	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	11	-14	9.6	13.3	-3.69	6.2	15.4	-9.16
Terry Davis	41	41	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	8	-8	13.1	12.9	0.21	16.1	13.4	2.72
Tracy Murray	61	61	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	11	-14	12.9	13.1	-0.22	13.7	15.6	-1.94
Harvey Grant	3	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	9	-10	18.0	12.8	5.21	13.7	14.5	-0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.65,0.59,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.54,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 89, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.94,0.96,1,1,1	94.0%
CLE 89, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.93,0.97,1,1	93.5%
POR 81, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.76,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%