NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	92		Excitement	4.6 [857]		MVP	Bobby Phills (CHH): +17.6%
San Antonio Spurs	82		Comeback	1.7 [353]		LVP	David Robinson (SAS): -24.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Phills	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.05	0.00	12	78%	0.20	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
David Wesley	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	9	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.03
Dell Curry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	19	47%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	45%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Glen Rice	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	11	50%	-0.00	6	-0.13	6	83%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	7	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	17	62%	0.11	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Reggie Geary	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.04	8	47%	-0.06	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.23	-0.07	-0.06	18	27%	-0.13	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.0	29.0	27.5	21.2	2.0	30.0	132.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +26.4%

CHH +11.2%

CHH +7.8%

CHH +2.6%

CHH +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SAS	NBA	CHH	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	16.9	15.6	102.2	92.1	102.5
season	15.7	15.9		104.0	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.9		97.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	14.7	15.4	14.4	17.0	15.3
SAS	16.0	17.3	16.9	17.3	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	82	82	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.14	14	-4	18	15.0	19.0	-4.04	16.9	16.0	0.94
Matt Geiger	51	51	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.15	9	1	8	15.6	15.0	0.61	16.3	17.7	-1.38
Anthony Mason	64	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	0	10	15.0	16.2	-1.28	16.2	18.6	-2.41
Bobby Phills	72	70	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	2	6	15.2	15.9	-0.78	15.8	20.8	-4.99
David Wesley	82	80	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	4	2	15.4	14.1	1.31	16.7	18.7	-2.00
J.R. Reid	13	13	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	6	-2	15.2	15.3	-0.11	19.8	16.4	3.49
Vernon Maxwell	10	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	6	-2	14.7	15.4	-0.70	20.1	16.4	3.68
Dell Curry	18	18	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	11	-12	17.1	14.9	2.24	19.7	16.1	3.58
Vlade Divac	52	50	0.04	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	13	-16	15.5	15.0	0.51	17.6	16.0	1.59
Donald Royal	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	11	-12	16.2	15.3	0.90	16.5	16.9	-0.39

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	20	19	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.16	10	-20	30	16.1	17.1	-0.99	17.5	14.7	2.73
Monty Williams	22	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-11	12	19.9	15.9	3.98	15.9	15.1	0.72
Reggie Geary	7	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-5	0	20.9	16.5	4.33	16.5	15.2	1.26
Jaren Jackson	38	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-11	12	17.9	16.1	1.84	17.1	14.0	3.13
Will Perdue	15	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	0	-10	18.5	16.5	2.01	15.4	15.3	0.06
Avery Johnson	55	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	-3	-4	15.9	18.4	-2.41	15.5	15.0	0.45
Chuck Person	53	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	16.4	17.6	-1.21	14.7	16.2	-1.50
David Robinson	60	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	0	-10	16.7	17.2	-0.46	14.9	16.2	-1.25
Vinny Del Negro	69	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	0	-10	16.0	19.7	-3.72	14.7	17.4	-2.75
Tim Duncan	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	0	-10	16.9	17.0	-0.14	15.1	18.2	-3.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 96, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	95.1%
HOU 116, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.38,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.23,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	94.9%
BOS 101, IND 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	94.5%