NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	93		Excitement	6.4 [477]		MVP	Anthony Goldwire (DEN): +56.1%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	1.1 [412]		LVP	Antonio Daniels (VAN): -12.2%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lee Mayberry	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.2	0.06	0.11	-0.03	6	79%	0.21	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Sam Mack	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0.2	0.05	0.15	0.00	13	63%	0.23	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
George Lynch	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.00	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	10	71%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Blue Edwards	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.09,-0.09	-0.16	0.04	-0.03	15	45%	0.04	5	-0.13	10	60%	-0.06
Antonio Daniels	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.56	0.56	0.04	0.50	-0.03	8	62%	0.57	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.02	11	59%	0.11	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.04
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	17	57%	0.07	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	17	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	12	50%	0.01	4	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	12	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	26.1	15.7	27.2	2.5	39.3	137.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +10.0%

DEN +0.5%

DEN +10.3%

DEN +17.6%

DEN +11.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	DEN	NBA	VAN	DEN	NBA
this game	13.7	18.2	15.6	102.2	108.9	102.5
season	15.1	16.2		101.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.5	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	14.1	13.6	11.0	16.6	13.7
DEN	18.6	16.6	18.2	19.4	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	24	24	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.15	6	-11	17	13.2	13.8	-0.59	19.5	17.7	1.76
Lee Mayberry	59	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-15	25	12.7	15.5	-2.76	18.4	17.7	0.79
Michael Smith	45	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-1	-3	12.6	14.7	-2.14	18.1	18.2	-0.07
Antonio Daniels	10	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-1	-3	10.1	14.1	-4.02	16.0	18.5	-2.47
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	73	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.46	9	-14	23	13.1	16.2	-3.17	18.9	14.7	4.12
George Lynch	13	12	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	4	-13	17.8	13.0	4.86	17.6	18.3	-0.67
Sam Mack	69	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.29	1	-6	7	13.1	15.5	-2.40	17.8	19.2	-1.35
Pete Chilcutt	39	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-6	7	15.5	12.3	3.21	18.4	18.0	0.49
Bobby Hurley	22	21	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	6	-17	17.9	12.3	5.58	18.5	18.1	0.47
Blue Edwards	27	26	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	6	-17	14.9	13.2	1.66	17.3	18.5	-1.15
Bryant Reeves	74	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	8	-21	13.5	14.4	-0.90	17.6	20.5	-2.91

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Garrett	59	57	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.19	13	-8	21	18.3	17.9	0.35	13.9	13.3	0.67
Johnny Newman	61	62	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.25	10	-5	15	17.4	19.8	-2.45	13.9	13.1	0.80
Cory Alexander	81	79	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	-1	7	18.4	15.8	2.65	13.5	14.7	-1.14
LaPhonso Ellis	80	81	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	1	3	18.0	19.1	-1.05	13.0	18.9	-5.86
Eric Washington	30	30	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.08	7	-2	9	17.9	18.3	-0.35	14.8	13.1	1.62
Anthony Goldwire	60	63	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	4	-3	17.6	19.4	-1.80	13.3	14.4	-1.08
Joe Wolf	25	28	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	4	-3	16.8	18.7	-1.84	13.5	13.8	-0.26
Danny Fortson	54	55	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.32	-17	22	-39	20.1	15.2	4.86	14.2	12.9	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.72,1	93.4%
MEM 88, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.84,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.58,1	93.2%
CHA 105, CLE 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.9,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%