NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	4.0 [964]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +13.3%
Toronto Raptors	95		Comeback	1.3 [1066]		LVP	Reggie Slater (TOR): -10.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.03	0.01	18	68%	0.16	2	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Dan Majerle	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	92%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	71%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	2	50%	0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.02	-0.04	10	54%	0.06	5	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	13	69%	0.08	6	-0.13	19	79%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.02	12	61%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.06	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Garner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.10	-0.00	0.12	20	64%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	17	46%	-0.00	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	12	30%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.7	28.3	17.4	25.6	2.4	26.3	128.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.8%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +7.9%

TOR -3.4%

TOR -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.6	126.1	103.3	102.5
season	15.8	15.5		104.7	98.7
opponent	14.8	16.2		108.2	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	13.0	17.0	16.8	15.1
TOR	17.6	17.0	15.0	15.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	60	62	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.05	18	3	15	14.7	15.7	-1.03	17.0	14.7	2.22
Alonzo Mourning	68	71	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.22	27	-6	33	15.0	15.4	-0.46	17.1	13.4	3.63
Tim Hardaway	70	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	9	3	14.9	15.5	-0.56	16.8	14.0	2.78
Voshon Lenard	59	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.22	20	1	19	15.7	14.0	1.63	16.3	16.1	0.18
Keith Askins	36	37	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	12	-3	14.9	15.2	-0.31	17.0	15.7	1.29
Dan Majerle	56	55	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.19	12	9	3	15.2	14.9	0.31	15.7	17.0	-1.29
Eric Murdock	40	40	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.19	12	9	3	14.7	15.3	-0.62	16.4	16.1	0.35
Rex Walters	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	13.9	15.2	-1.32	12.6	16.6	-3.95
Duane Causwell	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	13.9	15.2	-1.32	12.4	16.5	-4.11
Charles Smith	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	22	-23	13.9	15.2	-1.32	12.4	16.5	-4.11
Ike Austin	47	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.07	-2	23	-25	16.1	14.0	2.06	14.5	17.8	-3.36

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	64	64	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-14	7	15.3	18.4	-3.06	14.8	15.6	-0.76
Chris Garner	57	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-9	-3	15.1	18.0	-2.91	14.6	15.9	-1.33
Oliver Miller	66	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	-5	-11	17.2	13.8	3.43	14.8	15.7	-0.87
Shawn Respert	55	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.22	-19	-2	-17	17.3	14.6	2.69	14.9	15.4	-0.51
John Wallace	69	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.15	-18	-3	-15	15.9	17.3	-1.38	16.3	11.2	5.06
Doug Christie	75	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.07	-16	-5	-11	16.3	16.0	0.28	15.5	13.2	2.37
Reggie Slater	74	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.06	-17	-4	-13	16.5	15.2	1.32	14.4	17.7	-3.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, DAL 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
PHI 102, PHX 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
LAL 105, CLE 93	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.8%