NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	83		Excitement	5.4 [711]		MVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): +6.6%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.2 [936]		LVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): -11.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	13	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	43%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	21	54%	0.04	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	15	42%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Harvey Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	2	100%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	13	35%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.07	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	10	59%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	12	62%	0.11	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	18	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	9	52%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	11	32%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	26.4	16.3	24.4	2.0	29.0	123.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.2%

ORL +2.9%

ORL +6.2%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	17.0	15.6	93.3	102.2	102.5
season	15.1	16.7		102.8	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.6		101.4	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.2	14.6	15.3	13.9	15.0
ORL	16.5	14.8	17.5	19.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	10	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-9	8	16.0	14.9	1.13	16.1	17.1	-0.99
Chris Whitney	39	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-14	18	13.6	16.1	-2.42	17.7	16.3	1.36
Terry Davis	44	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.04	-9	-1	-8	15.5	14.6	0.90	15.6	18.2	-2.69
Ben Wallace	79	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-12	14	14.7	17.2	-2.48	17.3	14.1	3.23
Calbert Cheaney	73	75	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-6	2	14.7	16.3	-1.60	16.5	19.1	-2.53
Harvey Grant	43	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-5	0	15.3	14.7	0.54	18.3	15.7	2.59
Darvin Ham	29	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	6	-22	15.1	14.9	0.15	17.2	16.9	0.38
Tracy Murray	52	52	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	2	-14	15.6	14.1	1.48	16.4	17.7	-1.34
Rod Strickland	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	15.2	13.5	1.71	17.1	16.5	0.53

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	50	48	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-5	20	16.5	17.6	-1.15	15.5	14.4	1.18
Mark Price	49	46	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-4	18	16.9	17.1	-0.17	14.5	15.5	-0.94
Nick Anderson	73	72	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.09	10	0	10	16.6	18.4	-1.76	15.0	14.9	0.07
Bo Outlaw	64	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	4	2	17.5	15.7	1.76	15.0	15.0	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	52	51	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	3	4	17.6	16.1	1.49	14.9	15.2	-0.32
Horace Grant	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.18	5	5	0	17.7	15.6	2.02	15.3	14.3	0.99
Dan Schayes	34	31	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	6	-2	15.9	17.6	-1.75	15.1	14.9	0.20
Darrell Armstrong	45	45	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	15	-20	17.5	16.5	1.05	15.6	14.4	1.21
Brian Evans	3	3	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	12	-14	9.3	17.2	-7.91	8.3	15.2	-6.90
Rony Seikaly	25	26	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.01	-4	14	-18	16.3	17.2	-0.91	13.9	15.5	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 107, VAN 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.8%
BOS 92, ORL 113	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
MEM 79, SAS 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.88,0.77,0.92,1	94.7%