NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	79		Excitement	6.8 [479]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +14.8%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	2.1 [717]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (MEM): -22.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14	0.09	0.07	0.02	12	62%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Pau Gasol	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,0.09	-0.06	0.18	0.02	20	49%	0.23	5	-0.14	13	31%	-0.10
Dahntay Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Burks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	9	56%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.22	-0.00	-0.22	-0.00	17	53%	-0.14	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.04	-0.02	14	65%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.01	8	56%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.12	0.01	16	50%	0.21	3	-0.13	6	50%	-0.04
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	10	57%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.03	5	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	29.5	16.6	27.3	2.5	34.7	137.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.1%

MEM -1.2%

SAS +18.6%

MEM -8.9%

SAS +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	17.6	17.1	15.6	94.0	97.6	104.4
season	17.1	16.3		103.5	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.4	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.2	16.0	19.0	17.5	17.6
SAS	15.2	16.0	19.9	17.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	11	10	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-6	11	18.7	17.4	1.32	19.7	16.7	2.95
Dahntay Jones	7	6	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.02	2	-3	5	19.3	17.4	1.86	18.3	17.0	1.32
Antonio Burks	15	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	1	-3	16.2	17.9	-1.68	16.5	17.2	-0.77
Hakim Warrick	11	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	6	-13	13.7	18.2	-4.44	16.0	17.2	-1.25
Lorenzen Wright	41	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	6	-13	17.8	17.4	0.43	16.4	17.8	-1.39
Eddie Jones	62	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.49	7	-8	15	18.3	15.5	2.88	17.2	17.0	0.21
Pau Gasol	79	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.51	2	-3	5	17.9	11.8	6.15	17.2	15.0	2.19
Bobby Jackson	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-2	3	17.9	16.2	1.68	17.2	16.5	0.77
Mike Miller	58	56	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	1	-3	16.3	20.5	-4.17	17.1	17.2	-0.06
Shane Battier	67	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.40	-4	3	-7	17.7	17.1	0.58	17.1	17.3	-0.25

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	47	48	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-10	21	17.6	16.5	1.09	17.5	17.7	-0.15
Nick Van Exel	27	30	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.44	6	-5	11	17.0	17.1	-0.11	15.8	18.6	-2.83
Tim Duncan	65	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.44	-1	2	-3	17.5	15.7	1.77	17.5	17.9	-0.45
Manu Ginobili	61	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	0	1	15.7	21.3	-5.61	18.0	16.4	1.59
Robert Horry	42	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	-1	3	17.3	16.9	0.31	17.0	18.3	-1.29
Nazr Mohammed	20	20	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	-3	7	16.2	17.4	-1.20	14.6	18.5	-3.85
Rasho Nesterovic	31	30	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.10	-1	2	-3	16.8	17.3	-0.44	20.3	16.1	4.28
Bruce Bowen	59	60	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.23	-10	11	-21	18.1	14.5	3.60	17.3	18.2	-0.82
Tony Parker	58	57	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	8	-15	17.2	16.9	0.27	18.5	15.6	2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.88,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, ORL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 82, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.79,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
TOR 77, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%