NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	4.5 [889]		MVP	Ike Austin (MIA): +9.8%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.1 [1181]		LVP	Bo Outlaw (ORL): -14.4%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Evans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	20	47%	-0.05	1	-0.03	11	73%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	0.04	12	52%	-0.04	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.14	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.03	-0.05	15	37%	-0.10	3	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	7	40%	-0.07	2	-0.08	6	33%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.02	11	78%	0.12	2	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	16	75%	0.12	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	64%	0.07	4	-0.08	15	100%	0.05
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	10	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	32.1	17.4	26.2	2.0	36.0	138.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.2%

MIA +4.6%

ORL -11.2%

MIA +4.1%

MIA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	15.1	15.6	103.4	114.6	102.5
season	16.7	15.8		100.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.6		99.8	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.3	19.0	16.3	16.3	17.7
MIA	14.3	15.3	15.0	15.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Schayes	9	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-13	14	21.0	17.3	3.73	16.7	14.8	1.91
Gerald Wilkins	15	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-12	12	19.0	17.4	1.62	15.2	15.1	0.18
Brian Evans	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-9	6	20.0	17.4	2.55	19.4	14.7	4.70
Vernon Maxwell	9	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	-7	2	18.4	17.6	0.88	15.7	15.0	0.67
Horace Grant	23	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-2	-8	19.0	17.2	1.83	15.7	14.9	0.83
Darrell Armstrong	70	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-10	8	17.5	18.2	-0.65	15.2	14.5	0.78
Derek Strong	61	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-8	4	16.5	20.3	-3.84	15.3	14.6	0.71
Derek Harper	24	25	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-3	-6	20.2	16.7	3.47	16.4	14.6	1.75
Nick Anderson	61	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-3	-6	16.6	20.0	-3.40	13.6	18.8	-5.20
Rony Seikaly	76	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-2	-8	17.6	18.4	-0.81	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Bo Outlaw	80	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-3	-6	17.4	20.0	-2.55	14.7	19.4	-4.70

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	82	79	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	4	4	15.1	14.6	0.57	17.0	23.9	-6.85
Ike Austin	64	62	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	5	2	14.8	15.9	-1.08	16.9	19.6	-2.79
Tim Hardaway	76	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	5	2	14.4	19.0	-4.57	17.2	20.1	-2.85
Terry Mills	36	33	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	1	10	14.8	15.3	-0.45	18.0	17.4	0.60
Dan Majerle	41	41	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	5	2	15.3	14.9	0.36	17.7	17.6	0.10
Voshon Lenard	52	51	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	6	0	14.3	16.2	-1.95	18.0	17.1	0.88
Eric Murdock	24	23	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	1	10	14.7	15.3	-0.59	18.3	17.4	0.94
P.J. Brown	40	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.20	0	12	-12	16.7	13.8	2.86	17.2	18.0	-0.78
Alonzo Mourning	30	31	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	9	-6	17.0	14.1	2.91	20.8	15.9	4.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.82,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.86,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1	95.3%
CHA 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.3%
UTA 99, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.98,1	95.3%