NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	6.1 [547]		MVP	Gary Trent (POR): +21.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	2.1 [935]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -18.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.21	0.03	0.09	16	79%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Washington	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.09	0.08	-0.03	16	46%	0.10	3	-0.07	5	60%	0.06
Anthony Goldwire	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.06	0.00	5	33%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.11
Joe Wolf	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Harold Ellis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dean Garrett	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.08	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	16	36%	-0.04	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	13	79%	0.25	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	16	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	8	62%	0.02
Kelvin Cato	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	12	52%	-0.00	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Vincent Askew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	2	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	7	44%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	-0.02
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.19	-0.01	-0.05	10	40%	-0.08	4	-0.07	15	67%	-0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.19	-0.04	-0.07	9	11%	-0.13	4	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	26.0	15.8	29.2	2.5	45.3	145.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +14.7%

DEN -4.7%

POR +26.3%

POR +10.5%

POR +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.6	93.2	106.8	102.5
season	16.2	15.9		96.7	101.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		100.6	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.9	19.7	17.9	13.0	16.5
POR	18.3	17.2	18.1	12.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	55	56	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-9	6	16.9	15.8	1.01	17.5	14.0	3.49
LaPhonso Ellis	70	71	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-10	8	15.5	20.2	-4.71	15.7	18.6	-2.90
Joe Wolf	20	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-10	8	17.9	16.0	1.91	18.9	15.6	3.39
Bobby Jackson	66	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-6	0	15.4	19.6	-4.15	15.3	19.3	-3.99
Eric Washington	70	69	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-8	4	16.5	16.3	0.18	16.1	16.9	-0.82
Dean Garrett	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	16.0	17.9	-1.91	15.6	18.9	-3.39
Danny Fortson	23	23	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	19.0	15.6	3.42	15.5	16.5	-1.04
Anthony Goldwire	39	38	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-3	-6	16.3	16.6	-0.35	15.9	16.5	-0.53
Harold Ellis	29	28	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	2	-16	18.6	15.4	3.20	18.9	15.0	3.88

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Anderson	71	73	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-4	20	16.7	14.5	2.13	16.1	18.5	-2.48
Vincent Askew	39	39	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-2	16	13.5	18.4	-4.96	14.9	17.7	-2.84
Isaiah Rider	55	55	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	-3	18	17.1	14.8	2.34	17.9	14.1	3.82
Gary Trent	68	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	6	0	16.5	15.3	1.16	16.3	17.0	-0.75
Arvydas Sabonis	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	2	8	15.2	20.9	-5.73	16.3	17.4	-1.09
Kelvin Cato	8	11	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	8	-4	23.0	15.6	7.42	17.5	16.3	1.22
Rasheed Wallace	54	54	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	8	-4	17.2	14.7	2.56	18.0	14.1	3.85
Jermaine O'Neal	23	22	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	14	-16	18.7	15.4	3.37	16.3	16.5	-0.21
Alvin Williams	50	48	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	19	-26	14.7	18.3	-3.59	15.5	17.7	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, DAL 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.44,0.44,0.6,0.41,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
LAC 90, UTA 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.78,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
GSW 96, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.4%