NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	95		Excitement	6.9 [396]		MVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): +11.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	4.6 [530]		LVP	Erick Dampier (GSW): -17.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	16	57%	0.13	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Brian Shaw	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,0	-0.04	0.04	0.01	15	56%	0.09	4	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	83%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Duane Ferrell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.06	0.03	14	58%	0.02	1	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Carl Thomas	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	15	44%	-0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	12	59%	0.11	0	0.00	10	100%	0.09
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.03	0.03	11	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.05
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.02	14	56%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.04	-0.10	0.04	-0.02	25	52%	0.14	6	-0.19	10	90%	0.08
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	4	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.0	24.2	15.5	26.4	1.7	43.3	136.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -17.3%

MIL +30.4%

MIL +5.2%

MIL +28.0%

MIL +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	14.8	16.5	15.6	102.2	111.0	102.5
season	15.6	16.0		92.9	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.0		102.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.4	13.8	16.0	13.2	14.8
MIL	14.9	16.9	17.6	16.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Ferrell	15	16	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.17	3	-9	12	13.9	15.0	-1.13	13.9	17.1	-3.19
Felton Spencer	18	18	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.00	8	-14	22	11.1	15.7	-4.60	18.2	16.1	2.07
Carl Thomas	20	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.05	-3	-3	0	14.3	14.9	-0.60	14.0	17.2	-3.20
Adonal Foyle	15	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-5	4	14.9	14.8	0.14	15.6	16.7	-1.02
Brian Shaw	68	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.14	-1	-5	4	14.4	15.9	-1.45	17.0	15.1	1.93
Tony Delk	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-13	20	14.8	14.8	0.03	16.7	16.1	0.59
Joe Smith	81	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.43	-5	-1	-4	14.9	14.4	0.46	16.5	16.6	-0.13
Bimbo Coles	35	33	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.08	-17	11	-28	15.8	14.2	1.62	16.2	16.7	-0.41
Donyell Marshall	78	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.34	-9	3	-12	14.6	16.1	-1.49	16.9	14.7	2.12
Erick Dampier	72	70	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.37	-12	6	-18	16.1	10.4	5.73	16.7	15.9	0.84

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	44	45	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.33	20	-14	34	16.8	16.2	0.56	15.8	13.9	1.82
Glenn Robinson	80	83	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-12	30	16.0	19.9	-3.87	15.3	10.8	4.50
Armen Gilliam	79	81	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	-3	12	16.6	15.8	0.77	15.3	11.8	3.43
Terrell Brandon	72	72	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	-3	12	16.7	15.6	1.17	15.3	13.0	2.35
Ray Allen	73	72	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	1	4	16.6	16.0	0.63	15.3	13.0	2.29
Ricky Pierce	22	24	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.13	-3	9	-12	15.7	16.8	-1.03	12.2	15.7	-3.52
Elliot Perry	19	21	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	9	-12	15.6	16.7	-1.17	13.0	15.3	-2.35
Michael Curry	21	22	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.04	-9	15	-24	16.9	16.4	0.52	11.3	15.9	-4.58
Andrew Lang	45	45	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.04	-16	22	-38	16.9	16.2	0.71	14.5	15.1	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 84, MEM 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.29,0.61,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	91.0%
MIA 93, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.74,1	90.7%
DET 82, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.79,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.6,0.75,0.79,0.67,0.58,1	90.6%