NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	7.6 [316]		MVP	Tyrone Hill (CLE): +36.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	85		Comeback	7.2 [118]		LVP	Bob Sura (CLE): -24.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.01	10	73%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Litterial Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,0.01,-0.04	-0.10	0.06	-0.00	17	47%	0.14	4	-0.18	6	50%	-0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	65%	0.01	2	-0.05	17	82%	0.01
Joe Dumars	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	0.02	-0.13	0.01	6	65%	-0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Michael Curry	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.2	-0.01	-0.20	0.00	4	56%	-0.01	1	-0.20	1	0%	-0.02
Terry Mills	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.08	0.00	8	25%	-0.15	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Hill	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.36	0.36	0.12	0.25	0.00	13	72%	0.36	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.06
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	14	63%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	59%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.15	-0.00	10	50%	-0.17	3	-0.08	10	40%	-0.21

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	25.2	15.4	29.4	1.8	42.0	138.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +45.3%

DET -12.3%

DET -0.0%

CLE +26.2%

DET -9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	17.6	18.9	15.6	103.8	107.6	104.4
season	17.1	17.8		107.6	102.1
opponent	16.1	16.2		100.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.3	18.5	16.8	16.0	17.6
CLE	16.7	20.4	21.1	17.6	18.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	27	28	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.01	11	-14	25	18.0	17.4	0.58	20.9	17.8	3.13
Litterial Green	4	4	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-4	5	23.5	17.3	6.23	14.2	19.1	-4.87
Otis Thorpe	64	65	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.26	11	-14	25	16.8	20.9	-4.05	19.7	15.0	4.71
Aaron McKie	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	2	-7	19.7	17.1	2.59	16.1	19.5	-3.46
Grant Long	18	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	6	-15	19.4	17.0	2.41	20.4	18.4	1.97
Lindsey Hunter	59	58	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.42	-1	-2	1	16.9	19.7	-2.84	18.8	19.0	-0.17
Grant Hill	70	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.48	1	-4	5	17.2	20.4	-3.23	19.1	17.1	1.99
Michael Curry	41	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.27	-10	7	-17	17.5	17.7	-0.15	16.6	21.0	-4.47
Joe Dumars	57	57	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.53	-2	-1	-1	17.1	18.8	-1.71	19.5	17.1	2.41
Terry Mills	41	41	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.25	-12	9	-21	18.8	16.3	2.54	17.9	20.0	-2.12

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Phills	73	71	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.48	7	-4	11	18.9	18.8	0.04	16.5	27.4	-10.90
Tyrone Hill	65	64	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.57	2	1	1	18.9	18.6	0.37	16.1	23.8	-7.67
Bob Sura	68	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	3	-3	18.8	19.5	-0.78	17.6	17.8	-0.22
Danny Ferry	67	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	-3	9	18.2	22.7	-4.47	17.2	20.1	-2.91
Chris Mills	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	1	1	18.8	20.2	-1.45	17.6	16.7	0.88
Mark West	3	3	0.07	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	0	3	21.3	18.8	2.56	13.7	17.7	-4.07
Antonio Lang	9	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	7	-11	23.1	18.3	4.78	23.3	16.8	6.49
Vitaly Potapenko	18	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.09	0	3	-3	18.9	18.9	0.09	21.9	16.3	5.58
Reggie Geary	17	17	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.21	-1	4	-5	19.3	18.8	0.54	22.3	16.3	6.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.79,0.82,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.6,0.75,0.79,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.95,1	90.6%
MEM 105, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.28,0.55,0.72,0.71,0.73,1	89.7%
PHI 84, MEM 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.45,0.56,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.24,0.29,0.61,0.85,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	89.7%