NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	124		Excitement	2.3 [1209]		MVP	Chuck Person (SAS): +16.4%
Vancouver Grizzlies	115		Comeback	1.0 [1062]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (VAN): -7.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chuck Person	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.29	0.00	0.13	16	94%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Sean Elliott	0.09	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.00	0.05	13	77%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	72%	0.05	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	10	73%	0.06	4	-0.03	10	80%	0.01
Monty Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Carl Herrera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	11	47%	-0.00	3	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mack	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.17	0.02	0.08	14	80%	0.10	1	-0.00	7	71%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	5	80%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	0.00	0.09	9	72%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.06	9	65%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.00	17	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	0.07	21	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.8	23.4	15.6	27.1	2.4	27.6	120.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.6%

SAS +8.4%

SAS +4.3%

VAN -2.7%

SAS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	VAN	NBA	SAS	VAN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.5	15.6	127.8	121.1	102.5
season	15.9	15.1		100.9	101.3
opponent	15.3	15.9		109.1	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	12.5	18.0	16.5	15.5
VAN	14.4	17.5	12.0	14.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	87	85	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	8	-7	16.2	9.0	7.20	14.0	19.3	-5.32
Chuck Person	70	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	-3	15	14.3	18.4	-4.09	14.9	13.7	1.22
Tim Duncan	80	79	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.42	-3	12	-15	16.1	12.4	3.76	13.8	18.0	-4.16
Monty Williams	40	38	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.12	14	-5	19	14.1	16.4	-2.30	15.2	14.1	1.08
David Robinson	70	69	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	7	-5	16.5	12.6	3.91	14.2	15.3	-1.11
Sean Elliott	53	53	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.04	8	1	7	17.0	13.5	3.49	15.5	13.4	2.11
Will Perdue	14	15	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	-1	11	14.0	15.7	-1.70	17.7	13.9	3.80
Jaren Jackson	48	47	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	13	-17	15.4	15.5	-0.11	13.6	15.4	-1.78
Cory Alexander	10	10	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	1	7	9.0	16.2	-7.20	19.3	14.0	5.32
Carl Herrera	13	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	12	-15	11.2	16.1	-4.97	12.1	14.9	-2.77

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Robinson	6	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-9	9	18.7	14.3	4.41	14.6	15.5	-0.95
Tony Massenburg	5	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	-4	-1	13.6	14.6	-0.99	11.2	15.7	-4.48
George Lynch	26	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	-3	-3	16.4	13.8	2.60	16.9	15.0	1.92
Antonio Daniels	56	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.38	7	-16	23	13.2	16.5	-3.35	16.1	14.5	1.62
Sam Mack	63	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-11	13	13.0	17.5	-4.42	15.6	15.1	0.49
Otis Thorpe	60	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-4	-1	14.4	14.8	-0.46	14.9	16.4	-1.48
Blue Edwards	37	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	-1	-7	16.4	13.4	2.97	13.8	16.5	-2.69
Lee Mayberry	39	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.14	-16	7	-23	16.5	13.2	3.35	14.5	16.1	-1.62
Pete Chilcutt	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	1	-11	15.2	14.0	1.18	14.3	16.5	-2.17
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-6	3	13.8	16.4	-2.60	15.0	16.9	-1.92
Bryant Reeves	69	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-8	7	14.4	15.0	-0.58	17.9	9.8	8.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 123, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.6%
CHI 108, NYK 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.6%
PHX 128, BOS 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	97.5%