NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	7.5 [292]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): +10.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	4.8 [123]		LVP	Michael Jordan (CHI): -22.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Burrell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dennis Rodman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Kleine	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.07,0,0,0	0.10	-0.10	0.00	9	72%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	13	57%	0.11	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Bill Wennington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.00	13	27%	-0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	-0.22	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.22	-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	28	48%	-0.14	3	-0.08	13	77%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.02	14	70%	0.14	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.07
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Stanley Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Micheal Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.02	-0.04	18	49%	0.03	3	-0.06	11	55%	-0.10
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.08	-0.01	14	65%	0.06	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.03
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.6	26.2	16.4	26.3	2.5	42.6	140.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +47.1%

MIN +10.3%

CHI -6.1%

CHI -2.2%

MIN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIN	NBA	CHI	MIN	NBA
this game	17.6	14.3	15.6	105.6	108.8	102.5
season	16.2	14.8		105.8	105.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		104.9	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.3	19.8	18.1	15.7	17.6
MIN	15.5	15.5	14.6	12.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	32	34	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.07	4	-8	12	19.6	16.5	3.13	14.1	14.4	-0.33
Jason Caffey	11	12	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-5	6	19.5	17.3	2.14	16.8	13.9	2.96
Joe Kleine	9	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	-2	0	16.2	17.7	-1.51	10.8	14.6	-3.87
Luc Longley	65	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.19	4	-8	12	18.2	15.9	2.30	15.0	12.5	2.48
Ron Harper	63	65	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-4	4	17.7	17.3	0.35	14.2	14.5	-0.33
Steve Kerr	32	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-7	10	16.2	18.3	-2.16	13.3	14.7	-1.43
Bill Wennington	10	10	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.23	-5	1	-6	14.9	17.9	-3.01	14.2	14.3	-0.07
Dennis Rodman	84	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	2	-8	17.5	18.5	-0.99	14.0	17.3	-3.29
Toni Kukoc	72	72	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.51	-7	3	-10	16.9	20.2	-3.24	14.5	13.2	1.33
Michael Jordan	72	73	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.41	-12	8	-20	17.6	17.4	0.17	14.2	14.6	-0.36

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephon Marbury	77	77	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.50	10	-6	16	14.0	15.7	-1.71	17.6	17.3	0.32
Tom Hammonds	42	42	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-4	12	14.6	14.0	0.57	17.0	18.0	-0.99
Tom Gugliotta	81	80	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	0	4	14.2	14.5	-0.27	17.8	15.7	2.11
Kevin Garnett	74	73	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.29	1	3	-2	13.9	16.0	-2.14	17.0	20.1	-3.06
Terry Porter	30	29	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	3	-2	12.3	15.2	-2.88	15.7	18.5	-2.84
Stanley Roberts	27	28	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	-1	6	13.2	14.7	-1.53	19.5	16.7	2.79
Doug West	36	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	2	0	13.6	14.7	-1.17	18.5	17.0	1.44
Cherokee Parks	32	32	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	4	-4	16.0	13.3	2.68	17.5	17.6	-0.07
Micheal Williams	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	5	-6	17.1	13.9	3.19	19.7	17.3	2.32
Sam Mitchell	14	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	10	-16	16.3	13.9	2.39	19.7	17.2	2.47
Chris Carr	32	32	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.15	-4	8	-12	15.5	13.6	1.91	16.6	18.1	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.61,0.72,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 89, LAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.73,1	92.3%
ORL 93, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.75,0.55,0.86,0.95,1	92.3%
PHI 82, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	92.3%