NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	75		Excitement	6.3 [512]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +18.2%
Golden State Warriors	87		Comeback	6.2 [178]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -22.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	1	125%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Priest Lauderdale	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kiwane Garris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	9	28%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	6	47%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	10	65%	0.03	5	-0.16	14	71%	-0.05
Eric Washington	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.05	-0.02	7	0%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.09	-0.07	0.03	6	33%	-0.14	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.23	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.15	-0.12	-0.05	20	35%	-0.12	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.08	0.01	12	83%	0.26	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	7	76%	0.11	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	7	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	21	42%	-0.08	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.03
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	9	36%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	5	33%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.0	27.2	14.7	25.4	1.6	38.2	136.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +73.7%

DEN -19.3%

DEN -15.7%

GSW +7.3%

GSW +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	17.5	14.5	15.6	83.3	96.7	102.5
season	16.2	15.6		96.7	92.9
opponent	15.0	15.2		102.8	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.8	15.9	17.3	19.0	17.5
GSW	11.4	13.5	18.7	15.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Priest Lauderdale	27	25	0.54	-1.04	1.59	0.05	17	-29	46	15.9	18.2	-2.34	15.5	14.1	1.40
Eric Washington	36	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.30	-10	-2	-8	17.9	17.2	0.71	14.6	14.4	0.23
Danny Fortson	51	50	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-18	24	16.2	19.1	-2.89	14.2	14.8	-0.61
Anthony Goldwire	35	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.20	6	-18	24	17.9	17.2	0.74	15.8	13.7	2.16
Kiwane Garris	24	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.17	0	-12	12	18.4	17.2	1.27	15.2	14.3	0.95
LaPhonso Ellis	66	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.03	-15	3	-18	17.1	18.5	-1.32	14.0	16.0	-2.06
Tony Battie	37	36	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	2	-16	19.5	16.1	3.39	15.6	13.8	1.74
Johnny Newman	54	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-8	4	16.9	18.3	-1.41	14.0	15.3	-1.27
Bobby Jackson	57	58	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	5	-22	17.3	17.8	-0.47	13.8	15.8	-2.02
Dean Garrett	63	64	-1.01	0.51	-1.51	-0.16	-29	17	-46	18.2	15.9	2.34	14.3	15.0	-0.69

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	74	73	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.10	27	-15	42	14.4	15.1	-0.75	17.8	16.2	1.55
Felton Spencer	55	53	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.16	20	-8	28	13.3	16.4	-3.09	17.1	18.1	-0.96
Muggsy Bogues	35	35	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	3	6	14.7	14.4	0.33	18.1	17.1	1.02
Joe Smith	80	79	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	0	12	14.8	12.3	2.49	17.5	17.7	-0.27
Tony Delk	48	49	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	6	0	15.8	13.0	2.83	17.5	17.5	-0.04
Brian Shaw	42	41	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	6	0	13.0	15.8	-2.83	17.5	17.5	0.04
Todd Fuller	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	14	-16	12.4	14.7	-2.26	15.3	17.7	-2.39
Bimbo Coles	55	55	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.17	3	9	-6	14.4	14.7	-0.33	17.1	18.1	-1.02
Erick Dampier	35	37	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.01	-8	20	-28	16.4	13.3	3.09	18.1	17.1	0.96
Adonal Foyle	19	21	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	0.05	-13	25	-38	14.6	14.5	0.15	17.3	17.5	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.23,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.37,0.59,0.75,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 92, LAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.32,0.64,0.71,0.86,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	92.3%
CHI 81, MIA 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.8,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1	91.8%
CHI 69, BOS 71	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.59,0.6,0.78,0.62,0.85,0.95,0.96,1	91.7%