NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	5.6 [673]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): +13.9%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	4.4 [531]		LVP	Fred Hoiberg (CHI): -14.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	14	71%	0.22	3	-0.10	7	71%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.03	7	57%	0.06	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.04
Marcus Fizer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	10	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	17	47%	-0.02	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Khalid El-Amin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	5	50%	-0.02	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.08	-0.02	18	50%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.03	15	51%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.04
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.02	7	47%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	14	49%	0.00	2	-0.06	11	64%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	28.1	15.5	26.2	1.6	26.5	125.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.5%

MIA +14.2%

MIA +8.3%

MIA +10.2%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.9	15.5	95.3	105.9	100.9
season	16.4	16.3		95.2	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.1		96.9	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.4	18.0	15.4	17.5	17.0
MIA	16.1	18.9	15.9	16.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	35	36	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-12	15	17.7	16.5	1.12	17.9	16.2	1.70
Brad Miller	40	41	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-10	11	16.0	17.9	-1.94	16.8	17.0	-0.20
Metta World Peace	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.14	-7	-2	-5	19.0	15.7	3.33	17.4	16.5	0.93
Khalid El-Amin	13	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-5	1	16.4	17.1	-0.73	14.5	17.3	-2.77
Fred Hoiberg	57	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.40	1	-10	11	16.4	18.2	-1.81	16.9	16.9	-0.07
Elton Brand	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	17.1	16.6	0.43	17.5	14.0	3.50
Bryce Drew	74	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	17.0	17.1	-0.10	17.1	15.6	1.51
Ron Mercer	79	79	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	3	-15	16.6	22.7	-6.10	16.7	19.8	-3.18
Marcus Fizer	22	22	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.19	-17	8	-25	18.0	16.7	1.35	14.2	17.8	-3.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	68	68	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.30	19	-10	29	16.5	18.2	-1.69	16.9	17.4	-0.51
Anthony Mason	77	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-3	15	17.1	14.9	2.22	17.2	15.3	1.86
Tim Hardaway	61	59	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	0	9	17.6	15.0	2.56	17.7	15.3	2.44
Brian Grant	70	69	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.33	8	1	7	16.9	16.7	0.18	17.0	16.9	0.08
Anthony Carter	47	49	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	0	9	16.6	17.2	-0.59	16.7	17.4	-0.63
Eddie House	13	13	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	7	-5	13.6	17.5	-3.86	14.7	17.4	-2.72
A.C. Green	23	25	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	11	-13	16.1	17.2	-1.09	16.4	17.3	-0.91
Bruce Bowen	55	55	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.09	-5	14	-19	17.4	15.9	1.47	17.6	15.9	1.70
Dan Majerle	11	11	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.08	-7	16	-23	17.4	16.8	0.55	14.5	17.4	-2.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.8,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.58,0.69,0.88,0.82,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.98,1	92.1%
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	91.9%
IND 85, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.8,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1	91.8%