NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	7.1 [363]		MVP	Terrell Brandon (MIL): +13.5%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	6.6 [44]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -20.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.03	0.10	-0.00	13	66%	0.21	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Tyrone Hill	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.01	6	59%	0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	0.06
Elliot Perry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	57%	0.01	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
Andrew Lang	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	16	50%	-0.01	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.04	-0.13	0.00	6	43%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.13
Ray Allen	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.04	-0.14	0.01	18	59%	-0.01	6	-0.19	5	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ike Austin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	66%	0.08	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.01
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03
Keith Askins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	62%	0.10	3	-0.11	10	90%	0.03
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	11	41%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	6	29%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	0.01	9	45%	-0.12	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	1.7	30.3	16.6	25.2	2.5	36.5	142.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.4%

MIL +2.4%

MIL +28.0%

MIA -16.7%

MIA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.4	15.6	100.0	92.6	102.5
season	16.0	15.8		101.1	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.1		99.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.1	15.4	15.5	16.6	16.4
MIA	11.9	12.3	16.5	17.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	56	58	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.31	20	-14	34	14.7	18.9	-4.23	15.3	12.9	2.43
Tyrone Hill	48	50	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-8	22	16.6	16.2	0.43	17.0	11.5	5.57
Michael Curry	38	38	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-6	18	15.4	17.1	-1.61	14.3	14.5	-0.17
Terrell Brandon	56	57	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.54	-3	9	-12	16.2	16.6	-0.42	15.5	12.8	2.65
Ray Allen	84	86	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-1	8	16.6	14.3	2.29	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Glenn Robinson	84	84	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	7	-8	16.2	18.7	-2.51	13.7	20.1	-6.36
Elliot Perry	18	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.13	2	4	-2	18.5	15.9	2.61	14.4	14.4	-0.03
Jamie Feick	9	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	9	-12	18.4	16.2	2.27	10.6	14.9	-4.27
Armen Gilliam	36	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	11	-16	15.6	16.9	-1.28	11.7	15.9	-4.24
Andrew Lang	36	35	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.02	-13	19	-32	19.3	14.6	4.70	12.9	15.3	-2.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	16	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.10	-4	-2	-2	11.1	15.1	-4.04	18.7	15.9	2.78
Mark Strickland	21	21	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.11	-5	-1	-4	10.6	15.5	-4.95	14.0	17.1	-3.04
Terry Mills	34	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-4	2	13.2	15.1	-1.89	17.5	15.8	1.78
Eric Murdock	23	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-1	-4	13.1	14.8	-1.70	16.8	16.3	0.53
Voshon Lenard	67	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-6	6	14.7	13.7	1.00	16.5	16.2	0.21
Tim Hardaway	71	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-5	4	14.8	13.1	1.70	16.3	16.8	-0.53
Dan Majerle	33	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	0	-6	14.2	14.6	-0.41	16.8	16.1	0.71
Ike Austin	80	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-7	8	14.8	12.1	2.67	15.8	19.6	-3.74
P.J. Brown	52	51	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	0	-6	16.2	12.2	3.98	18.0	14.5	3.46
Jamal Mashburn	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-4	2	15.0	12.5	2.50	15.3	20.1	-4.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 105, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.17,0.23,0.29,0.47,0.05,0	91.1%
LAL 100, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.4,0.38,0.22,0.33,0.08,0	91.0%
ORL 107, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0	90.6%