NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	2.3 [1206]		MVP	Eric Murdock (MIA): +7.7%
Orlando Magic	60		Comeback	1.4 [343]		LVP	Rony Seikaly (ORL): -12.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Murdock	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	78%	0.08	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	15	63%	0.09	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	4	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	13	43%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	15	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	0.00	-0.06	7	14%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0.05	5	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	5	45%	0.03	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	5	57%	0.03	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	4	30%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	4	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	15	47%	-0.03	1	-0.01	10	70%	-0.01
Mark Price	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	16	9%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	25.3	17.4	27.3	1.8	25.3	122.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.3%

MIA +3.5%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +10.5%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	17.3	17.4	15.6	101.2	72.3	102.5
season	15.8	16.7		104.7	100.3
opponent	15.6	16.2		101.4	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	15.2	18.5	20.1	17.3
ORL	18.9	19.1	15.8	15.9	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	54	53	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.20	24	0	24	16.0	19.7	-3.71	17.3	17.6	-0.28
Tim Hardaway	55	53	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.21	19	5	14	15.7	20.3	-4.59	17.2	17.8	-0.59
P.J. Brown	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.25	19	5	14	15.8	21.5	-5.68	17.8	16.4	1.38
Voshon Lenard	43	42	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	13	-2	16.1	18.6	-2.51	17.5	17.3	0.16
Jamal Mashburn	63	63	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.33	21	3	18	16.2	20.7	-4.58	17.7	16.6	1.08
Keith Askins	20	20	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	21	-18	20.7	16.2	4.58	16.6	17.7	-1.08
Eric Murdock	39	40	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.14	11	13	-2	18.4	16.2	2.19	17.1	17.7	-0.62
Terry Mills	24	25	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.20	13	11	2	20.4	16.0	4.42	20.4	16.2	4.20
Dan Majerle	20	22	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.21	13	11	2	20.1	16.4	3.78	21.2	16.0	5.18
Mark Strickland	18	18	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	26	-28	20.2	16.5	3.69	15.9	17.8	-1.96
Duane Causwell	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	30	-36	21.1	16.8	4.30	10.4	18.3	-7.83
Charles Smith	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	30	-36	21.1	16.8	4.30	10.4	18.3	-7.83

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Evans	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-32	40	10.8	18.4	-7.61	20.7	16.7	3.98
Derek Harper	21	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-28	32	12.1	19.2	-7.07	17.3	17.3	0.06
Dan Schayes	35	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.25	6	-30	36	14.7	19.4	-4.78	18.8	16.1	2.65
Darrell Armstrong	40	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.30	-16	-8	-8	19.1	15.8	3.34	18.0	16.6	1.49
Gerald Wilkins	28	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	-16	8	17.7	17.3	0.39	20.6	15.7	4.91
Nick Anderson	34	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.17	-15	-9	-6	18.6	16.6	1.93	18.2	16.7	1.48
Derek Strong	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.27	-19	-5	-14	19.0	14.7	4.31	17.0	17.7	-0.71
Mark Price	31	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.18	-16	-8	-8	17.5	17.4	0.05	14.5	18.8	-4.35
Anfernee Hardaway	58	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.13	-16	-8	-8	17.6	17.0	0.66	16.1	20.2	-4.06
Rony Seikaly	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.36	-24	0	-24	19.6	15.1	4.48	17.1	17.4	-0.32
Bo Outlaw	61	63	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.21	-24	0	-24	17.0	18.5	-1.41	16.2	20.7	-4.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 122, SAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
BOS 100, NJN 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
POR 124, PHX 76	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%