NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	7.2 [350]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +21.6%
Charlotte Hornets	119		Comeback	3.2 [378]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): -12.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	6	67%	0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.07	0.01	3	100%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.04	0.03	18	61%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	17	46%	0.13	1	-0.08	5	60%	0.01
Eric Murdock	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	56%	0.02	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.08	-0.01	15	60%	0.06	2	-0.10	5	60%	0.02
Mark Strickland	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Keith Askins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.10	0.02	11	52%	-0.06	1	-0.07	5	100%	0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.12	0.03	16	68%	0.22	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.03	0.01	9	86%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.00	8	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.02
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	11	56%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	0.03	15	59%	0.10	4	-0.11	7	86%	-0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.03	10	64%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Corey Beck	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Farmer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	4	22%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.7	28.5	15.0	27.3	1.0	32.4	128.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +22.3%

MIA -4.0%

CHH +13.7%

CHH +17.0%

CHH +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.6	109.7	130.8	102.5
season	15.8	15.7		104.7	104.0
opponent	15.9	16.2		102.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	17.7	15.5	14.9	15.8
CHH	16.0	15.8	16.5	13.9	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	49	45	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.09	4	-21	25	14.4	17.4	-3.02	15.2	15.7	-0.52
Eric Murdock	14	13	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-20	23	14.3	16.1	-1.80	13.4	15.8	-2.45
Mark Strickland	29	30	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-16	15	17.6	15.0	2.62	15.5	15.5	0.07
Jamal Mashburn	66	67	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-13	9	16.0	15.3	0.73	15.9	14.3	1.56
Keith Askins	19	17	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-10	3	12.8	16.6	-3.74	11.9	16.3	-4.36
Tim Hardaway	82	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.05	-17	0	-17	16.2	13.1	3.09	16.0	11.7	4.25
P.J. Brown	43	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.11	-16	-1	-15	16.7	15.0	1.72	15.7	15.3	0.45
Voshon Lenard	82	80	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	0.05	-22	5	-27	15.7	16.9	-1.24	15.7	14.1	1.58
Ike Austin	81	79	-0.75	0.25	-0.99	-0.01	-25	8	-33	16.1	13.8	2.28	15.6	14.9	0.65

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Rice	69	68	0.66	-0.16	0.81	-0.05	24	-7	31	15.2	16.4	-1.16	15.8	15.8	0.08
Vlade Divac	67	68	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.12	18	-1	19	15.6	15.2	0.32	15.4	16.8	-1.40
Bobby Phills	62	63	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.01	20	-3	23	15.5	15.5	-0.05	15.2	17.1	-1.89
Dell Curry	50	51	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.05	18	-1	19	14.7	16.4	-1.65	15.8	15.8	0.01
Anthony Mason	68	72	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	5	7	15.7	14.9	0.76	15.1	18.2	-3.13
J.R. Reid	32	31	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.08	6	11	-5	14.9	15.8	-0.94	17.6	14.9	2.74
David Wesley	54	54	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	11	-5	16.7	13.8	2.91	16.2	15.3	0.88
Corey Beck	6	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	19	-21	11.7	15.8	-4.09	16.6	15.8	0.82
Matt Geiger	24	25	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.12	-1	18	-19	15.2	15.6	-0.32	16.8	15.4	1.40
Tony Farmer	13	15	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.04	-8	25	-33	17.5	15.2	2.31	15.3	15.9	-0.58
B.J. Armstrong	10	11	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.09	-8	25	-33	15.2	15.5	-0.32	17.0	15.7	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.9,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 99, ORL 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.0%
DET 92, CHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.37,0.44,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.71,0.84,0.96,1	91.9%
PHI 97, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.96,1	91.9%