NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	7.0 [389]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +10.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	95		Comeback	1.0 [1058]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -24.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	12	62%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Theo Ratliff	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Grant Long	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jerome Williams	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.01	7	69%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	15	41%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Bison Dele	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	14	40%	-0.05	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.21,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.20	-0.06	-0.02	17	47%	-0.06	8	-0.18	9	89%	0.04

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.09	-0.02	17	54%	0.14	2	-0.04	12	75%	0.03
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	71%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	85%	0.18	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
David Wingate	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	15	57%	-0.04	1	-0.03	12	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	39.3	1.7	25.6	15.0	29.0	2.6	33.5	146.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +22.1%

SEA +6.4%

SEA +11.9%

SEA +12.3%

DET -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SEA	NBA	DET	SEA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.5	15.6	103.5	110.5	102.5
season	15.9	15.3		102.8	109.3
opponent	16.2	15.9		102.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.7	15.4	20.2	15.8	17.0
SEA	15.3	17.3	14.8	18.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	31	32	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-8	10	15.5	17.9	-2.37	18.9	15.0	3.90
Theo Ratliff	55	55	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.44	12	-18	30	17.4	16.4	1.01	17.1	15.3	1.82
Aaron McKie	60	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.36	7	-13	20	16.3	18.7	-2.43	17.5	14.0	3.45
Jerome Williams	16	14	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	8	-22	16.0	17.2	-1.23	15.0	16.8	-1.78
Bison Dele	54	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	6	-18	17.9	15.5	2.34	14.7	19.2	-4.54
Malik Sealy	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	17.6	13.2	4.36	16.6	16.0	0.57
Lindsey Hunter	64	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.21	-11	5	-16	16.5	18.4	-1.89	15.8	18.9	-3.14
Grant Hill	76	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.27	-10	4	-14	17.3	14.4	2.94	16.2	18.4	-2.16

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	72	71	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.32	10	-4	14	16.2	17.9	-1.63	17.9	12.8	5.09
Gary Payton	74	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.26	10	-4	14	16.1	18.9	-2.82	17.3	15.2	2.08
Hersey Hawkins	65	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-1	8	15.4	19.9	-4.52	18.2	13.6	4.58
Vin Baker	69	71	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-4	14	15.6	20.1	-4.52	17.3	15.5	1.86
Aaron Williams	29	32	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.01	11	-5	16	14.4	17.5	-3.08	19.9	15.3	4.63
Jerome Kersey	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	7	-8	18.4	15.3	3.09	14.9	18.3	-3.34
Sam Perkins	29	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	12	-18	19.6	14.9	4.67	13.7	18.6	-4.82
David Wingate	1	0	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.04	0	6	-6	0.0	16.7	-16.68	0.0	17.0	-17.00
Dale Ellis	46	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.17	-7	13	-20	18.1	14.6	3.53	14.9	19.3	-4.43
Greg Anthony	12	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	10	-14	18.9	16.1	2.82	15.2	17.3	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.68,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, CHA 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.78,0.85,1	93.0%
MIA 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.89,0.97,1	92.7%
MIN 95, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.65,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.67,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	92.6%