NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	7.4 [313]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +25.1%
Indiana Pacers	86		Comeback	3.5 [210]		LVP	Travis Best (IND): -27.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16	0.11	0.06	0.01	18	66%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.13	-0.01	0.14	0.01	17	55%	0.22	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.04
Alan Henderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Randy Livingston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	16	51%	0.07	5	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	3	87%	0.06	6	-0.20	2	50%	-0.06

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.21	0.04	0.00	15	83%	0.37	1	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	2	83%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	17	55%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	36%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	11	46%	0.01	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.03
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.27	-0.27	-0.09	-0.16	0.03	7	25%	-0.13	1	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.5	25.4	15.5	20.4	2.4	36.0	123.4
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.5%

IND -12.1%

ATL +19.7%

ATL +0.1%

ATL +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	IND	NBA	ATL	IND	NBA
this game	17.9	16.6	15.6	106.0	103.6	102.5
season	16.1	16.0		105.3	105.3
opponent	16.1	16.0		99.2	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.4	18.0	19.1	18.4	17.9
IND	16.3	15.5	18.8	15.9	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	75	73	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	0	3	17.8	18.3	-0.49	16.7	16.0	0.67
Mookie Blaylock	75	73	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	17.6	20.0	-2.36	16.8	14.7	2.15
Steven Smith	76	75	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	4	-5	18.1	16.2	1.82	16.5	17.1	-0.59
Christian Laettner	63	61	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.40	-4	7	-11	17.9	18.0	-0.14	17.0	15.5	1.42
Chucky Brown	28	28	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.07	11	-8	19	18.1	17.8	0.32	16.8	16.5	0.29
Tyrone Corbin	56	56	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.46	-7	10	-17	17.8	18.1	-0.32	16.2	17.4	-1.16
Alan Henderson	30	31	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	-3	9	18.1	17.8	0.32	16.2	16.8	-0.68
Ed Gray	8	8	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	-1	5	16.2	18.1	-1.82	17.1	16.5	0.59
Randy Livingston	9	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	3	-3	20.0	17.6	2.36	14.7	16.8	-2.15

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	29	31	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.03	9	-12	21	17.4	16.1	1.27	17.5	18.1	-0.55
Chris Mullin	44	45	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-8	13	16.4	16.8	-0.48	17.7	18.1	-0.34
Mark Pope	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-2	1	1.0	16.8	-15.78	0.0	17.9	-17.89
Antonio Davis	37	36	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-1	-1	16.1	17.0	-0.82	18.7	17.3	1.45
Reggie Miller	73	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-2	1	17.0	13.6	3.40	17.7	19.3	-1.60
Dale Davis	64	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.32	0	-3	3	16.9	15.7	1.18	17.3	19.8	-2.52
Rik Smits	64	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.57	-3	0	-3	16.8	15.8	1.04	18.0	17.5	0.53
Jalen Rose	49	49	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.42	-10	7	-17	16.2	17.2	-0.99	18.3	17.3	1.04
Travis Best	54	53	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.38	-12	9	-21	16.1	17.4	-1.27	18.1	17.5	0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.61,0.72,0.55,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 104, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.71,0.56,0.15,0	91.2%
ORL 87, WAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.27,0	91.0%
NOP 95, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.42,0	90.7%