NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	8.3 [180]		MVP	Sean Elliott (SAS): +15.2%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	5.3 [357]		LVP	Cory Alexander (SAS): -22.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean Elliott	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	7	106%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
David Robinson	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15	0.11	0.07	0.03	17	71%	0.21	2	-0.06	11	73%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	7	86%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Geary	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	68%	0.17	5	-0.22	4	25%	-0.06
Monty Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	55%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	25%	-0.04
Jaren Jackson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	4	22%	-0.08	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.05
Avery Johnson	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	4	30%	-0.09	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.02	0.05	17	68%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	12	48%	-0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.03
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	16	41%	-0.07	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Zan Tabak	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	7	20%	-0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	13	39%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.22	-0.22	-0.04	-0.17	0.00	19	49%	-0.08	3	-0.14	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.4	25.5	15.4	24.4	2.7	36.2	134.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +101.7%

TOR -22.7%

SAS +12.2%

TOR -50.5%

SAS +9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	13.5	17.2	15.6	105.3	105.4	102.5
season	15.9	15.5		100.9	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.9		108.2	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.7	13.6	13.7	14.0	13.5
TOR	14.5	19.1	17.0	18.7	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	60	59	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	-7	16	14.1	12.3	1.86	17.8	16.1	1.73
Malik Rose	28	26	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-14	30	11.6	14.2	-2.58	18.6	16.7	1.89
Sean Elliott	59	58	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.47	-2	4	-6	14.3	12.1	2.27	17.2	17.2	0.07
Jaren Jackson	34	35	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.41	0	2	-2	13.7	13.3	0.42	18.8	16.3	2.54
David Robinson	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	6	-10	14.2	12.0	2.19	16.8	18.2	-1.37
Reggie Geary	12	11	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	-3	8	10.2	13.9	-3.68	19.3	16.9	2.33
Tim Duncan	66	64	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.23	-2	4	-6	14.8	10.4	4.39	17.1	17.4	-0.29
Monty Williams	57	56	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	3	-4	12.0	15.7	-3.70	16.2	18.8	-2.56
Will Perdue	12	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	3	-4	11.2	13.8	-2.63	15.0	17.5	-2.51
Chuck Person	42	41	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.02	-2	4	-6	12.5	14.2	-1.64	18.0	16.6	1.32
Cory Alexander	40	38	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.09	-8	10	-18	13.6	13.4	0.24	15.4	18.5	-3.08

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Respert	23	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.15	7	-9	16	16.9	17.3	-0.40	13.5	13.5	-0.00
Walt Williams	54	55	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-5	8	16.1	18.8	-2.68	12.5	14.8	-2.40
Zan Tabak	38	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	4	-10	17.1	17.3	-0.27	12.7	14.0	-1.25
Carlos Rogers	21	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-1	0	18.0	17.0	1.08	11.9	13.9	-2.06
Damon Stoudamire	80	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-2	2	17.0	18.6	-1.63	13.7	11.9	1.88
Popeye Jones	60	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.47	6	-8	14	16.5	18.5	-1.92	13.8	12.7	1.12
Marcus Camby	65	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	2	-6	18.0	15.4	2.66	14.4	11.2	3.20
John Wallace	52	53	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	4	-10	18.3	15.8	2.48	13.5	13.4	0.06
Doug Christie	72	72	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.50	-9	7	-16	17.3	16.9	0.40	13.5	13.2	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.33,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.27,0	91.2%
TOR 107, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.04,0	90.6%
NOH 94, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.37,0.24,0.16,0	90.3%