NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	107		Excitement	7.6 [317]		MVP	Greivis Vasquez (TOR): +23.9%
New Orleans Pelicans	100		Comeback	4.5 [335]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -28.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.15	0.00	7	74%	0.28	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.02	13	65%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.14	-0.01	0.03	19	61%	0.12	1	-0.02	13	85%	0.02
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	41%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	5	33%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.07	-0.16	0.05	18	50%	-0.13	6	-0.15	10	80%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.04	0.02	8	86%	0.21	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	83%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	6	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	9	48%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.11	-0.06	0.03	10	72%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Jeff Withey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.08	-0.03	10	50%	-0.05	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	10	58%	-0.05	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.6	30.5	15.7	25.6	2.3	34.5	136.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP -8.1%

TOR +3.5%

TOR +60.2%

NOP -6.4%

TOR +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NOP	NBA	TOR	NOP	NBA
this game	17.5	14.3	15.1	118.9	109.9	105.2
season	15.9	15.5		107.2	105.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		108.5	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.6	17.5	15.6	18.4	17.5
NOP	12.7	14.6	15.0	15.0	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	65	67	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.23	14	-7	21	17.1	18.5	-1.41	14.6	13.7	0.86
Kyle Lowry	73	74	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-3	13	16.5	21.7	-5.19	13.7	17.1	-3.34
Tyler Hansbrough	69	68	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-1	9	17.7	16.9	0.78	14.2	14.7	-0.53
DeMar DeRozan	74	73	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	1	5	17.5	17.5	0.00	14.3	14.4	-0.06
Greivis Vasquez	38	40	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	4	-1	18.3	16.9	1.37	14.6	14.1	0.55
Nando De Colo	28	27	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.15	13	-6	19	15.1	18.6	-3.53	14.5	14.3	0.25
Steve Novak	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	6	-5	17.7	17.5	0.19	13.0	14.5	-1.49
Charles Hayes	31	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	9	-11	18.0	17.2	0.76	15.3	13.8	1.55
John Salmons	34	35	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	10	-13	18.1	17.1	0.95	13.9	14.6	-0.65
Terrence Ross	29	30	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	22	-37	20.4	16.1	4.35	14.9	14.0	0.88

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	41	40	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.00	11	-18	29	13.6	14.9	-1.29	17.9	17.2	0.76
Anthony Morrow	29	29	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.00	5	-12	17	14.1	14.4	-0.30	18.3	17.1	1.25
Darius Miller	23	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-8	9	15.1	14.1	1.06	18.9	17.1	1.80
Austin Rivers	44	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	0	-7	15.1	13.6	1.54	17.2	17.8	-0.58
Greg Stiemsma	27	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-4	1	16.3	13.5	2.83	18.5	17.1	1.35
Eric Gordon	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-5	3	14.1	14.6	-0.49	17.5	17.5	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	63	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-3	-1	13.8	15.6	-1.83	17.3	18.1	-0.82
Jeff Withey	51	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.01	-18	11	-29	14.5	14.1	0.47	17.0	18.2	-1.20
Brian Roberts	55	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.35	-8	1	-9	13.8	15.2	-1.46	17.3	17.9	-0.58
Tyreke Evans	67	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.37	-10	3	-13	14.3	14.5	-0.27	17.1	18.7	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.43,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.34,0.08,0	91.3%
DAL 91, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.33,0.51,0.41,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.08,0	91.3%
NOH 106, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.34,0.17,0	91.0%