NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	106		Excitement	6.8 [416]		MVP	Terry Mills (MIA): +24.8%
Miami Heat	114		Comeback	3.5 [403]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -22.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Webber	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	-0.05	-0.00	24	69%	0.24	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	79%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	22	54%	0.08	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Harvey Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	55%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Terry Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	10	42%	-0.06	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Rod Strickland	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	14	41%	-0.10	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.14	0.10	0.00	11	91%	0.30	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.02	12	61%	0.12	1	-0.01	7	71%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0,-0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.10	0.01	24	50%	0.20	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	10	76%	0.13	6	-0.16	9	89%	0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	-0.04	11	40%	-0.03	4	-0.11	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.8	28.2	14.6	26.8	1.6	35.2	130.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.8%

MIA +2.9%

MIA +3.5%

WAS -6.2%

WAS -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.6	15.6	112.8	121.3	102.5
season	15.1	15.8		102.8	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.6		99.8	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.0	15.0	14.8	14.5	15.0
MIA	16.0	15.7	17.2	13.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Whitney	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-8	8	18.3	14.8	3.52	20.5	15.3	5.24
Juwan Howard	86	85	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-11	14	14.2	24.1	-9.93	15.9	13.0	2.87
Darvin Ham	10	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-3	-2	13.3	15.2	-1.95	18.6	15.3	3.27
Terry Davis	49	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	1	-10	15.0	15.0	-0.00	14.4	17.0	-2.64
Calbert Cheaney	73	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-8	8	14.8	15.9	-1.05	14.9	18.3	-3.41
Chris Webber	85	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-7	6	15.1	14.1	1.03	16.0	11.5	4.48
Harvey Grant	35	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	0	-8	17.7	13.5	4.17	16.2	15.3	0.95
Rod Strickland	88	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	0	-8	14.8	18.3	-3.52	15.3	20.5	-5.24
Tracy Murray	38	38	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.35	-12	4	-16	15.2	14.9	0.33	15.9	15.4	0.46

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	84	86	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.12	15	-7	22	14.7	23.5	-8.85	15.3	12.1	3.19
Tim Hardaway	84	85	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-2	12	15.3	18.3	-3.03	15.3	12.6	2.75
Jamal Mashburn	92	91	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	2	4	15.6	16.0	-0.41	14.7	26.7	-12.01
Terry Mills	53	51	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-2	12	17.3	13.4	3.87	15.6	14.3	1.28
Todd Day	29	30	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	0	8	16.7	15.1	1.58	16.1	14.6	1.50
Voshon Lenard	65	64	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.13	0	8	-8	15.1	16.7	-1.58	14.6	16.1	-1.50
Ike Austin	45	46	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	11	-14	14.2	16.9	-2.72	14.5	15.6	-1.15
Keith Askins	8	8	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	12	-16	22.4	15.0	7.41	16.1	14.9	1.18
Eric Murdock	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	10	-12	18.3	15.3	3.03	12.6	15.3	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 90, ORL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.26,0.32,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%
MIL 110, TOR 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.68,0.61,0.51,0.56,0.44,0.33,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.78,0.6,0.66,0.8,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	92.4%
PHI 72, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.57,0.67,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.1%