NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	125		Excitement	3.0 [1148]		MVP	Damon Stoudamire (TOR): +14.8%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	1.6 [736]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -13.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	0.00	23	63%	0.15	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Popeye Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	9	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.01	0.06	19	59%	0.03	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Clifford Rozier	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	0.00	0.07	15	60%	0.00	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.00
John Long	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sharone Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	2	125%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brett Szabo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	4	42%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Michael Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.07	11	42%	0.01	3	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nate Driggers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	46%	-0.01	1	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	10	62%	0.03	5	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.06	17	61%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Steve Hamer	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	67%	-0.01	2	-0.02	8	50%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.17	0.00	-0.03	22	42%	-0.01	6	-0.13	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.6	30.8	16.7	24.3	2.4	23.5	121.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +15.9%

TOR +7.0%

TOR +3.8%

TOR +20.9%

TOR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	14.8	14.2	15.6	126.3	94.0	104.4
season	16.1	14.8		102.2	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.0		109.5	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.3	13.5	15.3	13.9	14.8
BOS	11.3	16.5	15.4	13.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	76	77	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.44	32	-1	33	14.3	16.4	-2.17	14.9	11.7	3.17
Doug Christie	81	81	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.40	30	1	29	14.9	14.4	0.46	14.3	13.7	0.55
Reggie Slater	66	66	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.21	22	9	13	15.0	14.4	0.56	15.0	12.6	2.41
Walt Williams	63	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.26	20	11	9	14.5	15.2	-0.67	13.4	15.5	-2.11
Damon Stoudamire	77	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.31	21	10	11	15.3	13.0	2.21	13.9	15.1	-1.17
Marcus Camby	59	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.32	19	12	7	14.9	14.6	0.32	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Shawn Respert	22	22	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	21	-11	13.0	15.3	-2.21	15.1	13.9	1.17
John Long	13	13	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	29	-27	13.9	14.9	-0.97	14.2	14.2	-0.03
Clifford Rozier	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	32	-33	16.4	14.3	2.17	11.7	14.9	-3.17
Sharone Wright	15	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	31	-31	14.7	14.8	-0.04	13.4	14.3	-0.92

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Hamer	41	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	-22	13	12.4	15.4	-3.03	15.2	14.4	0.77
Brett Szabo	52	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.17	-11	-20	9	14.3	14.0	0.27	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Nate Driggers	40	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.11	-10	-21	11	15.0	13.6	1.37	13.6	15.6	-2.06
Alton Lister	24	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-22	13	16.6	13.4	3.16	14.0	15.0	-1.01
Michael Hawkins	35	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.25	-16	-15	-1	15.9	13.3	2.58	14.4	15.0	-0.59
David Wesley	76	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.26	-20	-11	-9	13.4	16.7	-3.33	14.8	14.7	0.09
Todd Day	74	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.24	-21	-10	-11	13.9	15.0	-1.11	15.1	13.6	1.51
Marty Conlon	74	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.44	-28	-3	-25	13.9	14.8	-0.90	15.3	13.6	1.72
Antoine Walker	84	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.36	-31	0	-31	14.4	13.1	1.26	14.9	14.2	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 116, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
TOR 99, POR 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
POR 99, CHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%