NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	6.5 [496]		MVP	Gerald Wilkins (ORL): +12.5%
Orlando Magic	100		Comeback	6.9 [311]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -36.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.00	13	62%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	7	74%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	18	45%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	11	55%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.33,-0.37,-0.37	-0.17	-0.19	0.01	10	50%	-0.05	8	-0.32	4	50%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.10	-0.01	12	54%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	8	60%	0.08	1	-0.05	9	100%	0.02
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	41%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	9	72%	0.10	5	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Nick Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	17	52%	-0.00	5	-0.10	6	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	23.3	16.6	28.5	2.0	29.2	125.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -16.8%

ORL +39.2%

DET -0.7%

ORL +24.8%

ORL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.2	15.6	102.2	112.4	104.4
season	17.1	16.4		107.6	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.2		103.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	17.4	18.9	15.9	16.1
ORL	15.8	16.1	17.1	16.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	9	9	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-11	13	15.2	16.2	-1.00	13.1	16.6	-3.48
Jerome Williams	23	23	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-10	11	17.9	15.5	2.35	15.4	16.5	-1.08
Don Reid	19	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-8	7	14.4	16.6	-2.23	13.5	17.0	-3.53
Grant Long	9	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-7	5	13.2	16.4	-3.23	15.7	16.3	-0.53
Theo Ratliff	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-9	9	16.6	15.7	0.98	17.9	14.7	3.14
Lindsey Hunter	65	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-9	9	16.9	14.1	2.79	16.3	16.2	0.11
Joe Dumars	62	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	0	-9	15.8	16.9	-1.10	16.1	16.6	-0.49
Aaron McKie	58	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	15.4	17.5	-2.09	16.1	16.5	-0.45
Grant Hill	80	80	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.20	-12	3	-15	16.0	17.1	-1.10	16.4	14.6	1.87
Otis Thorpe	78	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.17	-16	7	-23	16.5	13.5	2.94	16.7	12.9	3.80

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	81	81	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-7	23	16.3	15.2	1.08	16.4	13.1	3.29
Horace Grant	81	80	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.20	15	-6	21	16.1	17.7	-1.66	16.1	16.6	-0.48
Darrell Armstrong	40	40	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	3	3	15.9	16.5	-0.61	16.0	16.2	-0.13
Gerald Wilkins	49	50	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	3	3	16.2	16.3	-0.07	16.3	15.9	0.45
Dan Schayes	27	26	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	-5	19	17.8	15.5	2.27	18.2	15.3	2.87
Rony Seikaly	58	59	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	9	-9	15.6	17.4	-1.82	16.3	15.7	0.59
Dennis Scott	51	51	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	7	-5	16.2	16.2	-0.00	16.0	16.3	-0.24
Nick Anderson	47	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	14	-19	16.2	16.3	-0.09	15.2	17.1	-1.88
Derek Strong	11	12	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.05	-9	18	-27	17.6	16.0	1.60	12.4	16.7	-4.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, CLE 106	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,1,0.99,1	93.6%
DET 82, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.72,1	93.0%
NYK 95, IND 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.27,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.89,0.86,0.95,0.91,1	92.8%