NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	96		Excitement	6.5 [491]		MVP	Terry Cummings (SEA): +7.6%
San Antonio Spurs	91		Comeback	2.9 [723]		LVP	Cory Alexander (SAS): -18.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Cummings	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	9	74%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	9	66%	0.13	2	-0.06	17	65%	-0.04
Hersey Hawkins	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	9	70%	0.09	3	-0.05	12	83%	0.04
David Wingate	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	22	44%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate McMillan	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Stewart	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	7	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.03	18	47%	0.12	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	9	77%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	18	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.03	-0.10	0.03	5	69%	-0.10	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.15
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	8	45%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.18	-0.01	-0.02	13	19%	-0.10	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.11	0.02	12	56%	0.03	5	-0.22	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	24.6	15.8	24.0	1.8	34.0	127.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +10.0%

SEA +34.0%

SAS -10.0%

SEA +17.5%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	13.6	18.7	15.6	107.9	102.2	104.4
season	14.9	16.8		108.9	100.8
opponent	15.4	16.2		109.4	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	9.6	13.8	14.7	17.3	13.6
SAS	20.0	16.8	20.3	17.9	18.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	71	72	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.32	17	-12	29	12.8	16.8	-4.00	18.3	20.6	-2.38
Shawn Kemp	62	61	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.26	18	-13	31	12.4	16.5	-4.08	18.8	18.5	0.32
Gary Payton	83	83	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	13.3	18.0	-4.67	18.9	16.3	2.56
Larry Stewart	43	43	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.09	18	-13	31	12.5	14.7	-2.27	20.5	17.1	3.42
Sam Perkins	43	43	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	6	-7	15.8	11.6	4.21	17.5	19.8	-2.29
Jim McIlvaine	32	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.09	2	3	-1	12.7	14.2	-1.44	19.3	18.4	0.98
Nate McMillan	37	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.33	-7	12	-19	15.9	12.0	3.95	17.8	19.3	-1.47
Craig Ehlo	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	3	-1	8.0	13.7	-5.70	2.0	18.9	-16.91
Terry Cummings	39	39	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.08	-11	16	-27	14.5	13.0	1.46	20.1	17.6	2.46
David Wingate	34	35	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.15	-18	23	-41	14.7	13.0	1.68	17.6	19.4	-1.84

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	21	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-6	7	19.4	18.5	0.87	12.7	13.9	-1.21
Greg Anderson	23	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	2	-9	20.6	18.1	2.49	11.9	14.3	-2.39
Dominique Wilkins	52	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.07	-5	0	-5	18.9	18.5	0.35	12.1	15.6	-3.51
Vernon Maxwell	57	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-11	17	17.9	20.1	-2.15	14.9	11.1	3.76
Cory Alexander	49	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-8	11	16.8	21.0	-4.19	14.1	13.0	1.07
Avery Johnson	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	4	-13	20.7	17.1	3.60	12.4	14.7	-2.29
Will Perdue	64	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-10	15	18.5	19.2	-0.72	14.8	10.8	4.00
Jamie Feick	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.32	-6	1	-7	18.5	19.4	-0.87	13.9	12.7	1.21
Vinny Del Negro	70	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	8	-21	19.0	17.7	1.32	13.6	13.7	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.22,0.41,0.54,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 97, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.4,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.02,0	92.9%
LAC 111, SAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.1,0	91.4%
BOS 91, SAS 85	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.26,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.6,0.69,0.45,0.43,0.27,0	91.3%