NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	8.0 [233]		MVP	Brooks Thompson (DEN): +18.7%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	4.8 [419]		LVP	Jamie Feick (SAS): -29.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brooks Thompson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.10	-0.02	10	68%	0.19	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	73%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.03	-0.03	21	34%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Kenny Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	15	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	3	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.22	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	15	40%	-0.14	3	-0.08	12	58%	-0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.00	26	54%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.01	15	43%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	64%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	13	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	0.00	19	39%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	11	4%	-0.27	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.7	22.5	15.5	21.8	2.0	24.2	111.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -5.2%

DEN -15.4%

SAS +58.2%

SAS +12.7%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	16.4	15.6	97.8	103.2	104.4
season	15.2	16.8		102.3	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.3		109.4	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	13.3	15.9	15.5	14.7
SAS	13.9	17.2	17.5	17.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Zidek	3	3	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	7.0	15.0	-7.97	11.7	16.6	-4.91
Antonio McDyess	69	71	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	14.7	14.8	-0.16	16.9	14.7	2.22
Kenny Smith	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	1	-8	17.1	13.8	3.31	17.9	15.9	2.00
Brooks Thompson	48	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-1	-4	14.1	15.3	-1.17	16.3	16.5	-0.24
Tom Hammonds	75	76	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-4	2	14.4	15.9	-1.44	15.9	18.6	-2.65
Anthony Goldwire	59	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-3	0	14.4	15.2	-0.79	16.1	17.0	-0.92
Jerome Allen	22	23	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-6	6	13.1	15.2	-2.06	17.2	16.2	1.06
Dale Ellis	81	81	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.30	-1	-5	4	14.4	17.3	-2.91	16.4	16.4	0.00
Ervin Johnson	78	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.23	-17	11	-28	15.9	8.1	7.74	16.2	17.5	-1.25

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vernon Maxwell	48	47	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.21	10	-4	14	16.7	16.2	0.51	15.8	13.6	2.21
Monty Williams	85	84	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.33	3	3	0	16.3	17.7	-1.46	14.4	18.0	-3.61
Cory Alexander	66	65	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	1	4	16.4	16.4	-0.04	14.2	16.0	-1.88
Charles Smith	34	36	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	0	6	15.8	16.8	-0.94	17.9	12.6	5.27
Greg Anderson	66	65	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	7	-8	16.5	16.1	0.38	13.7	17.2	-3.56
Will Perdue	27	27	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	-1	8	16.1	16.5	-0.38	17.2	13.7	3.56
Jamie Feick	59	56	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	6	-6	16.8	15.8	0.94	12.6	17.9	-5.27
Avery Johnson	27	27	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	5	-4	16.4	16.4	0.04	16.0	14.2	1.88
Vinny Del Negro	53	53	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	7	-8	16.4	16.4	-0.05	14.2	15.3	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.93,0.93,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 76, ATL 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.96,1	92.9%
CHI 89, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.68,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.86,0.95,1,0.99,1	92.6%
SAS 79, POR 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,1	92.3%