NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	5.0 [789]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +14.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	82		Comeback	4.1 [401]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -16.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.05	0.06	18	70%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Dan Schayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amal McCaskill	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	10	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Gerald Wilkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.03	0.03	15	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	42%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	15	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
David Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	5	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Sherman Douglas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.03	-0.06	9	36%	-0.04	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	5	43%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	20	49%	-0.07	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.5	23.6	16.5	22.4	1.7	30.5	120.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +7.7%

ORL +9.3%

MIL -0.2%

ORL +33.7%

MIL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIL	NBA	ORL	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.6	15.6	109.0	92.1	104.4
season	16.4	16.0		102.9	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.7	16.4	16.4	16.4	16.7
MIL	14.4	16.3	17.1	14.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	81	82	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.01	20	-5	25	17.0	13.7	3.26	16.0	11.0	5.04
Derek Strong	73	73	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.04	15	0	15	16.6	17.4	-0.80	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Dan Schayes	32	31	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	4	7	16.8	16.6	0.19	16.5	15.2	1.24
Dennis Scott	63	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-4	23	16.5	17.2	-0.67	15.7	15.6	0.06
Gerald Wilkins	47	46	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	7	1	16.6	16.8	-0.17	15.9	15.4	0.52
Nick Anderson	73	73	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	13	-11	17.1	14.9	2.17	14.8	19.7	-4.93
Rony Seikaly	62	63	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	12	-9	16.9	16.3	0.61	16.5	13.7	2.81
Amal McCaskill	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	10.7	16.9	-6.26	7.0	15.9	-8.94
Darrell Armstrong	11	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	18	-21	14.6	17.0	-2.38	13.7	15.9	-2.19

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Wood	4	4	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-15	15	5.5	16.1	-10.62	13.2	16.9	-3.63
Joe Wolf	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	7.0	15.9	-8.94	10.7	16.9	-6.26
Andrew Lang	25	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-14	13	14.7	16.0	-1.28	16.7	16.7	0.00
Chucky Brown	18	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-10	5	16.6	15.4	1.15	16.9	16.7	0.27
Elliot Perry	14	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-8	1	19.2	15.0	4.24	16.2	16.8	-0.57
Glenn Robinson	79	79	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-9	3	15.6	15.6	0.05	17.3	12.1	5.20
Sherman Douglas	75	76	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	-7	-1	15.0	19.2	-4.24	16.8	16.2	0.57
Armen Gilliam	41	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-5	-5	18.0	13.6	4.42	16.5	16.9	-0.32
Johnny Newman	53	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	-8	1	14.8	16.9	-2.10	16.5	17.0	-0.47
Ray Allen	53	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.11	-18	3	-21	16.0	15.1	0.94	16.2	17.5	-1.26
Vin Baker	80	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.12	-13	-2	-11	15.6	15.7	-0.03	17.0	13.8	3.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, ATL 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	93.9%
BOS 95, IND 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.4%
DET 100, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.1,0,0,0,0	93.3%