NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	7.3 [357]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +17.7%
Washington Bullets	110		Comeback	2.5 [227]		LVP	Luc Longley (CHI): -13.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scottie Pippen	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	16	68%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Jason Caffey	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.04	0.02	7	71%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.01,0.01,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	30	52%	0.08	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Kerr	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	7	31%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Luc Longley	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	9	56%	0.04	3	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.05	-0.00	6	100%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.15	0.00	15	70%	0.32	5	-0.15	7	86%	0.03
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	16	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Harvey Grant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tim Legler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	18	45%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	18	37%	-0.11	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	11	52%	-0.06	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	23.7	15.6	27.3	2.4	32.4	128.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +4.7%

WAS +1.9%

WAS +30.1%

WAS +11.4%

WAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.6	108.5	119.6	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		110.5	104.3
opponent	15.8	16.1		103.3	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	13.9	18.5	14.8	15.4
WAS	14.7	16.1	15.8	15.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Harper	36	35	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-12	16	16.7	14.6	2.10	15.8	15.5	0.28
Dickey Simpkins	29	30	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-8	8	16.5	14.9	1.61	16.7	15.1	1.64
Jud Buechler	14	14	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-11	14	15.7	15.3	0.40	13.6	16.0	-2.39
Randy Brown	22	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-2	-4	17.0	14.9	2.12	14.4	16.0	-1.62
Michael Jordan	78	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.11	-3	-5	2	14.5	19.6	-5.12	16.1	13.4	2.68
Steve Kerr	44	44	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.4	16.3	-1.90	15.7	15.5	0.16
Jason Caffey	61	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.33	-3	-5	2	14.5	17.1	-2.60	16.7	13.7	3.01
Luc Longley	58	55	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-2	-4	15.3	15.4	-0.12	15.5	15.8	-0.27
Scottie Pippen	73	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	15.4	15.3	0.05	15.5	16.1	-0.64
Toni Kukoc	55	53	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.21	-18	10	-28	16.3	14.1	2.21	14.2	17.5	-3.24

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	68	71	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.42	10	-2	12	16.1	14.1	1.99	15.5	15.0	0.55
Rod Strickland	81	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-5	18	15.2	18.7	-3.55	15.6	13.2	2.43
Chris Webber	80	82	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.18	13	-5	18	15.5	16.5	-1.04	15.6	13.7	1.96
Calbert Cheaney	74	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	6	-4	16.3	12.7	3.58	14.3	20.3	-6.01
Juwan Howard	75	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	7	-6	16.4	11.9	4.56	14.6	18.9	-4.36
Tim Legler	8	8	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	3	2	8.0	16.3	-8.32	21.9	14.8	7.11
Jaren Jackson	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	7	-6	16.5	15.5	1.01	18.9	15.0	3.89
Harvey Grant	21	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.14	4	4	0	12.7	16.5	-3.80	17.4	14.7	2.66
Chris Whitney	11	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	13	-18	18.7	15.2	3.55	13.2	15.6	-2.43
Tracy Murray	32	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	12	-16	14.8	16.0	-1.25	14.9	15.6	-0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.86,0.64,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.89,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	92.8%
DEN 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.92,1	92.7%
SAS 83, GSW 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.98,1	92.6%