NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Excitement	5.8 [631]		MVP	Dean Garrett (MIN): +14.8%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	1.2 [928]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -15.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	13	67%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Terry Porter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	100%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Doug West	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	12	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	19	52%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	70%	0.01
James Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	10	33%	-0.09	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.03	0.05	10	80%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.04	0.03	22	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	10	55%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	2	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.01	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	1.7	28.2	15.6	24.3	2.4	33.9	127.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +20.2%

MIN +8.2%

DEN -3.5%

MIN +19.8%

MIN +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.6	113.3	111.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.2		103.3	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.8	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	14.5	17.8	18.3	16.1
DEN	15.5	15.5	14.9	17.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	82	81	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	-2	6	16.4	13.6	2.77	15.9	15.4	0.46
Kevin Garnett	66	65	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-6	14	16.4	15.5	0.82	16.4	14.6	1.79
Dean Garrett	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	0	2	16.1	16.2	-0.02	15.9	15.8	0.03
Stephon Marbury	66	67	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.40	-3	5	-8	16.9	14.0	2.87	15.5	16.8	-1.30
Doug West	64	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.31	-1	3	-4	16.2	16.0	0.15	15.4	16.9	-1.42
Terry Porter	32	31	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	-1	4	14.6	17.0	-2.45	17.0	15.2	1.79
Sam Mitchell	46	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	3	-4	15.7	16.7	-1.01	16.2	15.4	0.85
Cherokee Parks	1	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	2	-2	16.0	16.1	-0.15	4.0	16.0	-11.99
James Robinson	28	28	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	4	-6	15.6	16.4	-0.73	14.7	16.4	-1.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Allen	11	10	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.13	8	-10	18	18.1	15.5	2.55	22.0	15.4	6.59
Brooks Thompson	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-1	0	15.7	15.9	-0.22	14.8	16.8	-1.99
Anthony Goldwire	46	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.40	8	-10	18	16.2	15.5	0.70	16.3	16.0	0.29
Tom Hammonds	33	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-6	10	16.7	15.4	1.38	17.1	15.5	1.61
Dale Ellis	62	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-4	6	15.9	15.9	-0.00	15.9	16.7	-0.85
Kenny Smith	44	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	8	-18	15.5	16.2	-0.70	16.0	16.3	-0.29
Ervin Johnson	69	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.29	-6	4	-10	15.4	17.3	-1.87	15.7	17.3	-1.62
Antonio McDyess	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.17	-11	9	-20	15.4	17.4	-2.00	16.1	16.4	-0.35
LaPhonso Ellis	86	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	2	-6	16.0	12.2	3.77	16.1	17.0	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.1%
CHI 90, BKN 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.19,0.22,0.07,0.04,0.19,0.16,0.04,0,0	93.9%
WAS 104, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.21,0.06,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.02,0	93.9%