NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	6.3 [527]		MVP	Kevin Johnson (PHX): +20.5%
Phoenix Suns	117		Comeback	1.6 [1095]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -22.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.14	0.00	0.05	24	65%	0.16	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Sherman Douglas	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Joe Wolf	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wood	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.03	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.02
Glenn Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	25	49%	0.01	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.09	0.03	22	46%	-0.10	4	-0.12	6	33%	-0.05

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.12	0.02	16	70%	0.25	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.03
Wayman Tisdale	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	8	88%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	62%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.01	13	59%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Chapman	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Horacio Llamas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	58%	0.04	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	0.8	24.5	15.4	24.5	2.6	35.2	130.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +28.6%

PHX +28.2%

MIL -13.4%

PHX +7.8%

MIL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	PHX	NBA	MIL	PHX	NBA
this game	15.3	14.6	15.6	115.5	121.9	104.4
season	16.0	14.6		103.9	106.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.1	15.7	18.4	16.0	15.3
PHX	14.2	15.0	15.2	14.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elliot Perry	31	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-9	13	16.7	14.6	2.15	15.4	14.2	1.22
David Wood	4	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-2	-1	19.5	15.1	4.40	17.0	14.5	2.52
Joe Wolf	13	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	0	-5	16.4	15.1	1.28	14.1	14.6	-0.57
Johnny Newman	64	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-8	11	14.7	16.4	-1.64	13.9	15.7	-1.72
Chucky Brown	45	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.13	-5	0	-5	14.7	15.8	-1.10	15.6	13.7	1.85
Glenn Robinson	72	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-5	5	15.8	13.8	1.94	14.8	13.9	0.91
Ray Allen	88	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-3	1	14.9	19.0	-4.10	14.3	17.0	-2.66
Vin Baker	97	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	15.3	0.0	15.28	14.6	0.0	14.56
Sherman Douglas	71	69	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.24	-12	7	-19	15.0	15.9	-0.88	14.2	15.6	-1.43

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Chapman	75	76	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-10	25	14.3	15.7	-1.41	15.5	14.4	1.08
Hot Rod Williams	82	83	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-6	17	15.0	11.9	3.08	15.3	15.2	0.07
Kevin Johnson	84	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	2	1	14.2	17.1	-2.88	15.2	15.5	-0.25
Jason Kidd	86	88	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.34	3	2	1	14.4	16.2	-1.83	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Danny Manning	63	61	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.30	-2	7	-9	14.6	14.5	0.16	15.5	14.9	0.58
Wesley Person	57	57	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.36	-5	10	-15	15.3	13.4	1.90	15.7	14.6	1.11
Wayman Tisdale	26	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	0	5	14.2	14.7	-0.51	14.7	15.5	-0.79
Cedric Ceballos	3	2	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	5	-5	15.3	14.5	0.80	15.5	15.3	0.23
Horacio Llamas	4	4	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	10	-15	12.7	14.6	-1.89	7.0	15.6	-8.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 78, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.42,0.45,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.98,1,1,1	93.8%
MIL 89, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
PHI 83, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%