NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	97		Excitement	8.2 [210]		MVP	Willie Anderson (MIA): +21.7%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	17.4 [83]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): -52.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Byron Scott	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	-0.00	5	75%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Sean Rooks	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	77%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
George McCloud	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.06	0.05	-0.06	14	50%	0.08	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Travis Knight	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	54%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.04	0.00	19	50%	0.06	2	-0.08	10	80%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	4	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.52	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.52	-0.07	-0.45	0.01	19	50%	-0.38	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	6	79%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.11
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.03	0.02	17	66%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.05
Ed Pinckney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	11	70%	0.08	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.06
Mark Strickland	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.05,-0.17,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.05	0.00	22	45%	0.06	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.14	0.03	-0.06	13	33%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	26.4	16.3	29.6	2.6	33.9	137.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.2%

MIA +4.3%

LAL -6.8%

MIA +10.5%

LAL -13.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	17.7	15.6	111.5	111.4	104.4
season	15.3	15.8		105.8	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.7		98.3	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.3	14.7	12.7	19.8	15.2
MIA	19.3	17.3	17.8	16.2	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corie Blount	53	51	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.07	8	-9	17	14.8	15.9	-1.02	18.2	16.9	1.30
Kobe Bryant	6	6	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.01	6	-7	13	15.0	15.2	-0.25	14.2	17.9	-3.76
Derek Fisher	17	16	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-3	5	13.1	15.7	-2.63	19.1	17.4	1.70
Jerome Kersey	61	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.54	16	-17	33	15.7	14.2	1.42	17.7	17.6	0.11
Sean Rooks	22	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.14	-8	7	-15	13.3	15.9	-2.56	18.0	17.6	0.38
Travis Knight	2	2	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	5	-11	13.0	15.3	-2.28	19.5	17.6	1.87
George McCloud	17	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	6	-13	12.2	16.0	-3.72	17.9	17.6	0.34
Elden Campbell	65	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.61	7	-8	15	15.9	13.3	2.56	17.6	18.0	-0.38
Eddie Jones	79	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.39	-6	5	-11	15.2	15.9	-0.71	17.3	20.8	-3.46
Nick Van Exel	70	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.50	-3	2	-5	15.7	13.1	2.63	17.4	19.1	-1.70
Byron Scott	43	43	-0.91	0.41	-1.33	-0.50	-14	13	-27	16.6	13.9	2.63	17.9	17.4	0.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Askins	54	54	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.61	11	-10	21	17.1	18.6	-1.50	13.6	18.0	-4.41
Voshon Lenard	78	77	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.54	6	-5	11	17.9	16.1	1.77	15.1	16.6	-1.55
Tim Hardaway	78	75	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.59	4	-3	7	17.4	19.5	-2.06	14.4	20.3	-5.92
Ike Austin	69	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.66	-6	7	-13	17.1	19.9	-2.84	14.4	18.2	-3.75
Willie Anderson	42	40	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.61	-9	10	-19	17.6	17.8	-0.19	17.4	13.4	3.97
Jamal Mashburn	68	69	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.21	11	-10	21	17.8	17.1	0.74	15.7	13.3	2.46
Mark Strickland	1	1	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	3	-5	9.0	17.8	-8.77	19.0	15.2	3.81
Ed Pinckney	29	28	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.23	-4	5	-9	20.2	16.4	3.73	16.4	14.7	1.77
John Crotty	21	23	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.19	-6	7	-13	17.9	17.6	0.31	18.0	14.2	3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.39,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.24,0.27,0.11,0.07,0.33,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.05,1	89.4%
ORL 94, MEM 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.15,0.04,0.03,0.14,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.09,1	89.3%
MIL 86, CHA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.07,0.15,0.15,1	89.0%