NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	105		Excitement	7.4 [309]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +33.0%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	22.1 [67]		LVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): -13.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.11	-0.02	9	84%	0.28	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Al Horford	0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.16	-0.00	11	69%	0.28	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	11	74%	0.14	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.04	0.10	-0.10	-0.04	25	62%	0.13	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Mario West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	15	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.05
Marvin Williams	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	10	10%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.17,0.33	0.33	-0.09	0.40	-0.02	19	35%	0.36	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.02	-0.03	14	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.03	12	61%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	12	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.07
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	57%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	54%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	10	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	32.3	15.8	25.2	2.6	39.2	142.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +10.1%

ATL -0.3%

TOR +19.0%

TOR +13.5%

TOR +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.5	14.9	15.3	111.7	110.4	106.0
season	16.0	15.0		109.4	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		111.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	14.7	14.4	17.9	15.5
TOR	13.2	15.3	16.8	14.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	69	73	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.03	8	-9	17	15.4	15.6	-0.18	15.2	13.7	1.58
Joe Smith	15	16	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-4	7	12.1	16.1	-3.97	12.6	15.3	-2.75
Zaza Pachulia	22	23	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.12	-3	2	-5	15.3	15.5	-0.20	14.1	15.1	-1.01
Maurice Evans	68	70	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.28	8	-9	17	14.6	17.7	-3.13	15.1	14.1	1.01
Jamal Crawford	73	75	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-1	1	15.1	16.6	-1.48	14.5	16.0	-1.47
Jeff Teague	18	17	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	10	-21	16.9	15.1	1.76	12.0	15.5	-3.47
Mario West	1	0	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	1	-3	2.0	15.6	-13.61	0.0	14.9	-14.85
Al Horford	72	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.59	2	-3	5	15.5	15.3	0.20	15.1	14.1	1.01
Josh Smith	72	74	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.53	-3	2	-5	15.9	14.1	1.74	15.6	12.5	3.05
Marvin Williams	60	59	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.65	-7	6	-13	17.0	12.7	4.37	15.0	14.6	0.47

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	42	41	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.50	10	-9	19	14.2	15.3	-1.10	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Chris Bosh	63	65	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.06	21	-20	41	14.8	14.9	-0.13	16.6	13.0	3.52
Hedo Turkoglu	80	79	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.55	4	-3	7	14.7	15.4	-0.62	16.0	12.7	3.33
Andrea Bargnani	76	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.57	-8	9	-17	15.1	14.0	1.08	15.3	16.0	-0.75
Jose Calderon	54	54	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.51	-6	7	-13	15.3	14.2	1.10	15.8	15.0	0.81
Amir Johnson	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	0	1	13.7	15.6	-1.89	14.6	16.1	-1.42
Sonny Weems	41	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-4	9	14.6	15.1	-0.51	15.1	15.7	-0.67
Reggie Evans	13	10	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.05	-12	13	-25	17.2	14.5	2.66	12.9	15.8	-2.87
DeMar DeRozan	71	69	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.13	-10	11	-21	15.1	14.0	1.10	15.3	16.0	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.05,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.26,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.08,1	90.7%
LAL 97, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.39,0.26,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.24,0.27,0.11,0.07,0.33,0.08,1	89.4%
NOH 85, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.15,1	89.4%