NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	7.4 [319]		MVP	Qyntel Woods (POR): +28.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	94		Comeback	64.8 [27]		LVP	Jeff McInnis (POR): -30.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.25	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.25	-0.05	0.26	-0.03	16	59%	0.35	5	-0.10	9	67%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	24	51%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.08	-0.02	5	60%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	7	43%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	17	36%	-0.14	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Qyntel Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.29	0.29	0.03	0.26	0.00	2	79%	0.29	0	0.00	10	70%	0.24
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.23	0.23	-0.01	0.23	-0.00	15	55%	0.26	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	12	65%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.2,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	13	45%	0.01	5	-0.20	3	100%	0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.31	-0.31	-0.04	-0.26	0.01	10	46%	-0.29	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	571.2	0.2	28.2	15.6	23.3	2.4	-685.3	-44.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -47.4%

POR +107.6%

POR +4.2%

MIA -17.7%

POR +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.7	100.0	100.0	100.5
season	16.2	17.1		99.3	101.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		103.2	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	13.8	13.7	16.5	15.0
POR	14.2	19.0	17.6	12.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	21	21	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.12	8	-9	17	12.7	15.7	-2.97	19.0	14.8	4.20
Loren Woods	25	23	0.19	-0.69	0.87	-0.22	14	-15	29	13.5	15.6	-2.04	15.7	15.8	-0.18
Samaki Walker	27	26	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.05	5	-6	11	15.7	14.7	1.03	15.7	15.8	-0.18
Dwyane Wade	70	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.15	-9	8	-17	15.1	14.9	0.19	16.3	14.1	2.16
Eddie Jones	73	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.53	3	-4	7	15.1	14.7	0.33	15.1	18.2	-3.06
Rafer Alston	46	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.61	5	-6	11	15.2	14.9	0.32	15.2	16.3	-1.13
Udonis Haslem	74	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	7	-15	14.9	15.4	-0.52	15.8	15.5	0.31
Brian Grant	55	56	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.31	-14	13	-27	15.3	14.6	0.73	16.3	15.1	1.23
Lamar Odom	74	76	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.60	-9	8	-17	15.6	12.8	2.73	15.1	18.9	-3.84

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff McInnis	77	75	1.11	-0.61	1.72	0.38	25	-24	49	15.5	17.1	-1.55	16.0	10.8	5.25
Qyntel Woods	37	38	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.69	6	-5	11	13.2	17.5	-4.24	16.4	14.0	2.38
Rasheed Wallace	80	78	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.45	14	-13	27	16.1	13.9	2.18	15.6	12.1	3.43
Zach Randolph	77	76	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	0	1	15.6	16.4	-0.76	14.8	15.8	-0.99
Damon Stoudamire	77	76	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.50	1	0	1	15.6	16.4	-0.76	14.8	15.8	-0.99
Vladimir Stepania	22	23	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	-1	3	18.4	15.0	3.36	14.8	15.1	-0.25
Matt Carroll	9	10	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	7	-13	18.4	15.5	2.94	11.3	15.5	-4.16
Dale Davis	53	50	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.12	-5	6	-11	15.4	16.2	-0.81	15.0	15.0	0.02
Tracy Murray	5	6	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	-0.04	-12	13	-25	21.8	15.4	6.35	8.3	15.5	-7.14
Ruben Patterson	33	33	-0.65	1.15	-1.79	-0.03	-21	22	-43	16.4	15.5	0.93	13.1	16.1	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.26,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.05,1	90.7%
NOH 85, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.15,1	90.4%
WAS 115, CLE 119	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.38,0.27,0.33,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.23,0.42,1	89.8%