NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	80		Excitement	5.1 [788]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +7.8%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	2.2 [654]		LVP	Keith Askins (MIA): -8.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.01	17	53%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sedale Threatt	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	11	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Othella Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	2	33%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	2	100%	0.07	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Eddie Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	17	49%	0.01	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02
Clyde Drexler	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	13	43%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	25	61%	0.13	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	12	67%	0.12	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	9	58%	0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Willie Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Fish	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	6	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	14	56%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Ed Pinckney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.6	27.4	17.6	25.8	2.5	35.3	134.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +5.4%

MIA +3.3%

MIA +28.4%

MIA +10.3%

MIA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	16.6	15.6	88.9	111.0	104.4
season	15.5	15.8		107.2	103.1
opponent	16.3	15.4		98.3	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	17.2	15.0	12.9	15.2
MIA	16.0	17.1	17.0	16.4	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bullard	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-18	15	8.0	15.4	-7.39	12.0	16.7	-4.70
Sedale Threatt	13	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-17	13	11.3	15.9	-4.58	16.6	16.6	-0.03
Randy Livingston	24	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-17	13	16.5	14.8	1.69	17.1	16.4	0.66
Hakeem Olajuwon	73	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-19	17	15.7	13.4	2.30	16.7	16.2	0.51
Clyde Drexler	61	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-15	9	15.0	15.8	-0.84	16.1	17.7	-1.61
Mario Elie	67	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-8	-5	15.3	15.0	0.36	16.7	16.4	0.27
Othella Harrington	30	30	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.21	-19	-2	-17	14.8	15.4	-0.58	16.8	16.5	0.36
Matt Maloney	60	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.21	-21	0	-21	15.0	15.6	-0.57	16.3	17.1	-0.80
Eddie Johnson	45	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	-6	-9	16.2	14.3	1.91	17.3	15.9	1.42
Kevin Willis	75	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	-3	-15	15.1	15.6	-0.45	16.5	16.9	-0.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	74	74	0.48	0.01	0.47	-0.07	19	2	17	16.7	16.0	0.73	15.7	12.8	2.93
Voshon Lenard	74	72	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.05	16	5	11	16.6	16.8	-0.21	14.4	18.5	-4.10
Keith Askins	50	51	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.09	17	4	13	17.7	15.2	2.50	14.9	15.6	-0.65
P.J. Brown	76	73	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	10	1	17.0	14.6	2.39	15.4	14.3	1.14
Ed Pinckney	21	20	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.07	8	13	-5	18.6	16.0	2.63	13.8	15.6	-1.83
Jamal Mashburn	56	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	6	9	15.1	18.9	-3.77	15.5	14.8	0.69
Ike Austin	67	68	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	14	-7	16.2	17.7	-1.46	16.0	13.0	3.00
John Crotty	23	24	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.10	6	15	-9	16.7	16.6	0.08	13.4	15.9	-2.46
Bruce Bowen	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	12.0	16.7	-4.70	8.0	15.3	-7.30
Matt Fish	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	18	-15	12.0	16.7	-4.70	8.0	15.4	-7.39
Willie Anderson	10	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	21	-21	15.4	16.7	-1.34	19.5	14.6	4.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 82, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%
ORL 97, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
ORL 92, BOS 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%