NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	4.5 [889]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +11.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.8 [721]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -17.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	25	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Ike Austin	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	11	81%	0.13	3	-0.04	10	80%	-0.00
Willie Anderson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	6	77%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.02	0.05	14	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ed Pinckney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	9	47%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.07	17	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	20	55%	0.10	4	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	5	29%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	62%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	6	33%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	12	42%	-0.05	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	25.4	15.3	22.2	2.5	26.2	120.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.1%

MIL -2.9%

MIA +7.5%

MIA +15.3%

MIL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.2	16.5	15.6	122.7	105.7	104.4
season	15.8	16.0		103.1	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		106.0	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.4	16.1	17.6	14.9	16.2
MIL	16.3	16.6	17.6	15.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Anderson	35	34	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.07	16	-1	17	15.4	16.7	-1.27	17.6	15.9	1.77
Ike Austin	70	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	0	15	16.0	16.8	-0.80	17.1	13.9	3.17
P.J. Brown	79	79	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.06	14	1	13	16.9	10.1	6.77	16.3	18.2	-1.88
Tim Hardaway	80	80	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.00	15	0	15	16.2	15.6	0.63	16.5	16.7	-0.24
Jamal Mashburn	69	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	6	3	16.4	15.3	1.19	16.0	18.2	-2.16
Keith Askins	34	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	7	1	14.9	17.0	-2.18	16.8	16.3	0.50
Voshon Lenard	39	42	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	13	-11	16.9	15.7	1.22	16.1	16.9	-0.84
Ed Pinckney	9	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	14	-13	17.4	16.1	1.39	15.0	16.7	-1.69
John Crotty	25	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	20	-25	15.0	16.7	-1.72	16.2	16.7	-0.45

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wolf	21	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-13	11	16.0	16.7	-0.64	14.9	16.6	-1.77
Elliot Perry	36	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.02	-8	-7	-1	15.6	17.2	-1.66	16.1	16.2	-0.09
Armen Gilliam	36	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-11	7	17.8	15.7	2.10	16.4	16.1	0.36
Johnny Newman	49	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	-5	-5	16.6	16.5	0.04	16.7	15.6	1.09
Sherman Douglas	52	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-8	1	17.2	15.6	1.66	16.2	16.1	0.09
Chucky Brown	39	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.12	-14	-1	-13	15.8	17.1	-1.33	16.1	16.3	-0.18
Ray Allen	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-8	1	16.2	17.9	-1.69	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Vin Baker	80	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-5	-5	16.5	17.2	-0.79	16.5	13.3	3.19
Glenn Robinson	54	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	-2	-11	16.9	15.9	0.97	16.0	16.6	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, BKN 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.23,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
DET 111, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.43,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.31,0.41,0.34,0.35,0.39,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.18,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
SAS 85, POR 63	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%