NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	101		Excitement	7.2 [367]		MVP	Mark Price (GSW): +13.5%
Golden State Warriors	108		Comeback	4.2 [114]		LVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): -17.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.03	12	68%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Derek Strong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brian Shaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	11	58%	0.09	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Nick Anderson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0,0	0.06	-0.05	0.01	8	69%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	18	55%	0.06	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	5	37%	-0.04	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	17	52%	-0.03	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	9	78%	0.22	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	0.01	16	59%	0.10	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.04
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.01	9	90%	0.16	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	15	58%	0.06	5	-0.16	6	67%	-0.02
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	5	17%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	0.8	28.1	14.8	27.1	2.3	31.7	128.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +44.9%

ORL -6.2%

GSW +10.5%

ORL -0.2%

GSW +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	16.6	13.8	15.6	107.4	113.7	104.4
season	16.4	15.0		102.9	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		109.1	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	14.6	19.4	17.7	16.6
GSW	13.9	13.1	15.7	13.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Anderson	71	72	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-11	15	16.1	18.4	-2.36	14.0	13.4	0.59
Horace Grant	76	78	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-11	15	16.2	18.7	-2.50	14.2	12.0	2.24
Dennis Scott	59	60	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-7	7	17.2	15.7	1.44	13.3	14.7	-1.43
Brian Shaw	43	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	1	-9	16.1	17.1	-0.98	14.1	13.6	0.50
Derek Strong	45	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-7	7	16.6	16.7	-0.05	14.5	13.3	1.27
Anfernee Hardaway	78	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	2	-11	16.5	17.4	-0.87	14.0	13.2	0.76
Gerald Wilkins	32	32	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	2	-11	17.7	16.1	1.53	13.1	14.2	-1.13
Rony Seikaly	66	66	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.17	-17	10	-27	17.4	14.9	2.50	13.3	15.1	-1.87

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Latrell Sprewell	84	82	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.33	11	-4	15	13.7	14.5	-0.80	16.9	15.1	1.79
Joe Smith	86	85	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	14.2	10.1	4.12	16.8	15.3	1.45
Andrew DeClercq	31	30	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.37	8	-1	9	14.0	13.8	0.19	16.9	16.5	0.42
Mark Price	48	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	2	3	13.7	13.9	-0.19	15.8	17.6	-1.74
Scott Burrell	33	32	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	4	-1	13.2	14.2	-1.06	16.4	16.8	-0.37
Chris Mullin	73	74	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	7	-7	14.3	12.5	1.81	16.5	17.2	-0.70
Bimbo Coles	49	47	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	2	3	13.4	14.3	-0.81	17.1	16.2	0.91
Felton Spencer	55	56	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	8	-9	13.5	14.3	-0.75	16.6	16.7	-0.02
Todd Fuller	7	6	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	10	-13	19.1	13.4	5.72	18.5	16.5	1.98
Donyell Marshall	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	12	-17	10.1	14.2	-4.12	15.3	16.8	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.2,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.48,0.72,0.73,0.86,0.81,0.67,0.86,0.97,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 85, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.51,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.8,0.9,0.97,1,1	92.7%
SAS 84, ATL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.62,0.68,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.98,1	92.4%
SAS 97, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.47,0.57,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	90.9%