NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	5.7 [648]		MVP	Todd Day (BOS): +19.5%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.5 [224]		LVP	Damon Stoudamire (TOR): -23.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19	0.04	0.14	-0.02	20	56%	0.23	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00
Eric Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	13	61%	0.09	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Marty Conlon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	75%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Alton Lister	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.03	-0.01	0.03	16	62%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	9	59%	0.03	4	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Brett Szabo	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.02	9	61%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.07

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.03	0.03	12	65%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	10	60%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	5	36%	-0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24	-0.24	-0.18	-0.06	0.00	13	38%	-0.11	6	-0.13	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.3	25.5	15.6	21.5	2.5	33.2	126.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +29.7%

BOS +5.6%

BOS +2.2%

BOS +15.4%

TOR -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	15.5	15.6	113.8	108.4	104.4
season	14.8	16.1		101.8	102.2
opponent	15.0	14.7		105.6	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	13.5	16.3	15.5	15.0
TOR	14.6	17.3	15.6	14.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	82	84	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.34	7	-3	10	14.8	16.2	-1.43	15.7	14.0	1.67
David Wesley	94	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	15.0	0.0	15.00	15.5	0.0	15.47
Todd Day	58	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	-2	8	14.6	15.7	-1.13	14.6	16.8	-2.19
Antoine Walker	85	86	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.42	0	4	-4	15.2	12.9	2.33	15.5	15.6	-0.09
Rick Fox	91	90	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	6	-8	15.1	10.7	4.48	15.9	7.8	8.10
Marty Conlon	48	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.13	12	-8	20	14.9	15.2	-0.30	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Alton Lister	6	6	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	5	-6	11.2	15.3	-4.09	15.3	15.5	-0.15
Brett Szabo	6	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	10	-16	21.3	14.6	6.77	20.5	15.1	5.37

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	31	31	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-7	10	17.1	14.7	2.36	16.0	14.5	1.54
Reggie Slater	7	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	1	-6	16.7	15.4	1.34	12.0	15.2	-3.20
Clifford Rozier	18	17	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	2	-8	12.4	16.2	-3.74	14.8	15.1	-0.29
Hubert Davis	32	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-11	18	14.0	16.2	-2.27	15.6	14.7	0.98
Oliver Miller	34	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	0	-4	17.7	14.2	3.52	15.4	14.8	0.59
Damon Stoudamire	84	85	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.40	5	-9	14	15.2	17.5	-2.24	15.0	14.8	0.25
Marcus Camby	50	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.11	-6	2	-8	14.9	16.1	-1.17	14.4	15.6	-1.20
Doug Christie	83	84	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-9	14	16.0	12.0	3.98	15.4	11.3	4.14
Walt Williams	58	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-2	0	16.2	14.3	1.88	15.5	14.3	1.18
Carlos Rogers	48	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-1	-2	14.4	16.6	-2.22	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Shawn Respert	30	28	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	10	-24	15.0	15.7	-0.69	12.4	16.1	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.28,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, NJN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.18,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.5%
LAL 99, PHX 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0	93.8%
CHI 94, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	93.7%