NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	3.8 [1012]		MVP	Harvey Grant (WAS): +5.6%
Washington Bullets	118		Comeback	1.7 [1152]		LVP	Joe Smith (GSW): -8.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Price	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	80%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	60%	-0.00	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Todd Fuller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Felton Spencer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Mullin	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	11	39%	-0.02	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	0.07	24	61%	-0.04	5	-0.04	18	83%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	14	42%	-0.07	3	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	2	117%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	10	48%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	5	57%	0.03	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	16	61%	0.04	2	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	17	62%	0.07	4	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	86%	0.03	4	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	-0.11	11	40%	0.01	3	-0.04	8	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	25.4	15.6	31.2	2.5	33.5	135.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +43.2%

GSW -3.2%

GSW -0.8%

WAS +12.5%

GSW -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	WAS	NBA	GSW	WAS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.0	15.6	109.1	116.8	104.4
season	15.0	14.8		104.4	104.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.3	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.0	19.4	14.8	11.3	14.9
WAS	11.7	14.9	14.6	14.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	27	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-10	10	16.2	14.3	1.87	14.4	13.8	0.61
Donyell Marshall	47	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.30	5	-15	20	14.1	15.5	-1.35	13.8	14.1	-0.22
Andrew DeClercq	34	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	-1	-8	16.1	14.2	1.96	14.1	13.9	0.30
Mark Price	45	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.33	3	-13	16	14.1	15.5	-1.41	14.8	13.2	1.53
Bimbo Coles	70	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-5	0	14.6	15.4	-0.83	14.2	13.4	0.77
Todd Fuller	16	16	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	5	-20	16.0	14.6	1.36	10.6	14.6	-3.95
Chris Mullin	70	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	4	-18	15.1	14.2	0.87	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Joe Smith	94	96	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	14.8	15.4	-0.57	14.1	12.0	2.05
Latrell Sprewell	92	93	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	-2	-6	14.5	19.0	-4.46	13.8	16.2	-2.50

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	96	94	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-1	12	13.8	16.6	-2.79	14.2	27.6	-13.42
Juwan Howard	86	84	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	14.3	12.0	2.29	15.2	13.0	2.19
Rod Strickland	78	75	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	2	6	14.0	13.7	0.27	15.0	14.5	0.47
Calbert Cheaney	76	74	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	14.4	12.7	1.64	14.9	14.9	-0.03
Gheorghe Muresan	42	42	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	0	10	13.9	14.0	-0.04	15.1	14.6	0.49
Jaren Jackson	33	33	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	7	-4	14.1	13.9	0.21	15.2	14.7	0.44
Chris Whitney	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	10	-10	15.2	13.4	1.84	14.1	15.2	-1.13
Tracy Murray	38	36	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.19	-2	12	-14	11.7	15.3	-3.68	14.2	15.2	-1.00
Harvey Grant	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.02	3	7	-4	13.6	14.1	-0.41	17.0	14.1	2.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
PHX 95, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CLE 75, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%