NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	3.9 [995]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): +16.0%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	1.6 [901]		LVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): -17.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.05	0.03	12	94%	0.24	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.04
Doug West	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.00	-0.02	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	13	59%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	7	78%	0.02	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	12	42%	0.01	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Terry Porter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.01	0.05	13	52%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.01	0.05	11	76%	0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	-0.08	12	35%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	12	59%	0.00	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	8	19%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	3	17%	-0.10	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.06
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.01	21	42%	-0.09	4	-0.08	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	26.6	16.6	27.0	1.6	23.5	123.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +37.7%

MIN +12.8%

SAS -8.3%

MIN +7.8%

MIN +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	16.5	15.6	118.7	97.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.8		103.3	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		109.4	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.7	13.8	14.6	16.0	15.2
SAS	16.8	15.0	19.7	14.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	70	69	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.24	27	-8	35	14.9	16.3	-1.41	16.3	16.9	-0.54
Dean Garrett	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	-2	23	15.0	15.7	-0.71	16.8	15.1	1.70
Doug West	52	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.00	10	9	1	15.3	15.1	0.26	17.4	15.2	2.17
Tom Gugliotta	74	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	12	-5	15.7	13.2	2.49	16.9	14.7	2.15
Terry Porter	24	24	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	7	5	13.5	15.8	-2.36	16.1	16.6	-0.44
Stephon Marbury	67	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	12	-5	15.8	13.5	2.36	16.6	16.1	0.44
Chris Carr	39	38	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	10	-1	15.1	15.3	-0.26	15.2	17.4	-2.17
Sam Mitchell	34	35	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.14	1	18	-17	14.7	15.5	-0.74	16.7	16.3	0.47
Cherokee Parks	24	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	18	-17	15.8	15.0	0.86	14.2	17.4	-3.22

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	24	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-22	25	14.8	17.0	-2.20	16.5	14.7	1.77
Monty Williams	21	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-21	23	16.3	16.5	-0.21	16.0	15.0	1.00
Will Perdue	62	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-19	19	15.5	18.6	-3.08	15.4	14.7	0.75
Cory Alexander	34	32	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.07	-11	-8	-3	17.2	16.0	1.21	15.4	15.1	0.32
Avery Johnson	57	59	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	-11	3	16.0	17.2	-1.21	15.1	15.4	-0.32
Greg Anderson	29	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.16	-19	0	-19	18.6	15.5	3.08	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Carl Herrera	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	0	-19	16.9	14.9	1.99	15.0	16.0	-1.03
Vinny Del Negro	75	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	0	-19	16.8	14.8	1.99	15.2	15.2	0.01
Dominique Wilkins	82	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.16	-24	5	-29	16.3	18.1	-1.84	14.8	18.4	-3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, MIN 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
ORL 108, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.2,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.2%
SAS 109, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%