NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	4.8 [838]		MVP	Dennis Scott (ORL): +30.1%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.4 [1005]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -29.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.07	17	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Willie Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Keith Askins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	64%	0.03	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.03	8	32%	-0.09	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.26,-0.27,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.19	-0.07	0.04	16	42%	-0.12	7	-0.18	6	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.26	0.04	0.00	12	100%	0.30	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	17	60%	0.05	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.01
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	14	53%	0.04	4	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Nick Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	11	46%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.01	-0.02	9	15%	-0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	1.7	29.3	16.3	23.4	2.6	36.2	130.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.2%

MIA -5.6%

ORL +5.3%

ORL +21.9%

ORL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	16.5	15.6	96.6	107.7	104.4
season	15.8	16.4		103.1	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		103.5	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	18.0	15.5	13.7	15.4
ORL	17.1	16.3	15.8	16.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Anderson	6	5	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-8	4	16.0	15.4	0.59	13.6	16.7	-3.11
John Crotty	40	41	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-13	14	15.0	15.8	-0.82	16.2	16.8	-0.62
Keith Askins	51	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-7	2	15.5	15.4	0.05	16.6	16.4	0.25
Jamal Mashburn	72	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-3	-6	14.8	18.3	-3.52	16.9	14.7	2.25
Ike Austin	59	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	-1	-10	16.2	14.0	2.24	16.5	16.7	-0.24
Tim Hardaway	64	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	-4	-4	15.7	14.9	0.74	17.1	15.1	2.01
P.J. Brown	77	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	-1	-10	15.5	15.2	0.33	16.4	17.6	-1.26
Voshon Lenard	76	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	1	-14	15.5	15.4	0.08	16.2	18.4	-2.15

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	79	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-5	22	16.5	16.5	0.04	15.8	12.9	2.93
Rony Seikaly	64	64	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.01	15	-3	18	16.8	15.9	0.98	15.8	14.6	1.18
Nick Anderson	72	69	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	2	8	17.0	14.9	2.08	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Anfernee Hardaway	75	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	2	8	16.7	15.9	0.73	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Dennis Scott	61	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	2	8	16.6	16.5	0.06	15.3	15.9	-0.59
Brian Shaw	36	36	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	5	2	16.0	16.9	-0.84	15.3	15.5	-0.24
Gerald Wilkins	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	15	-18	15.6	17.1	-1.47	15.8	15.3	0.51
Derek Strong	29	27	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	18	-24	15.9	16.8	-0.89	14.7	15.8	-1.12
Dan Schayes	5	5	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	12	-12	17.8	16.5	1.33	15.4	15.5	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 103, IND 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.7%
TOR 87, NYK 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
GSW 74, HOU 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%