NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	96		Excitement	4.3 [918]		MVP	Mario Elie (HOU): +8.3%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	1.2 [1155]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): -13.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Byron Scott	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.04	9	67%	0.02	0	0.00	9	100%	0.05
Jerome Kersey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.04	11	64%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
George McCloud	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	5	62%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	16	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Travis Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.01	0.00	19	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.02	9	11%	-0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	-0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.15	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.09	0.07	-0.09	19	56%	0.14	7	-0.07	7	100%	0.05
Charles Barkley	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.01	16	67%	0.10	5	-0.10	7	57%	-0.02
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	10	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.6	26.2	16.4	25.9	1.8	41.2	139.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +39.8%

HOU +5.5%

HOU +2.5%

LAL -7.3%

HOU +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	HOU	NBA	LAL	HOU	NBA
this game	13.4	16.3	15.6	99.0	103.1	104.4
season	15.3	15.5		105.8	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.7		103.0	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.4	13.6	12.0	13.6	13.4
HOU	14.4	15.9	18.5	16.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Rooks	44	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.38	12	-16	28	12.5	14.2	-1.73	16.4	16.2	0.19
Derek Fisher	40	41	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.40	12	-16	28	12.6	14.0	-1.41	16.3	16.3	0.01
Jerome Kersey	43	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-2	0	13.2	13.5	-0.30	17.4	15.3	2.10
George McCloud	25	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-4	4	12.5	13.7	-1.19	14.8	16.8	-1.99
Byron Scott	49	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.37	7	-11	18	12.8	14.0	-1.14	15.7	16.9	-1.28
Travis Knight	52	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	9	-22	14.3	12.4	1.87	15.9	16.8	-0.90
Nick Van Exel	57	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.02	-16	12	-28	14.0	12.6	1.41	16.3	16.3	-0.01
Elden Campbell	90	91	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.29	-9	5	-14	13.5	12.1	1.36	16.4	14.2	2.26
Eddie Jones	85	84	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	7	-18	13.9	9.7	4.26	16.5	14.7	1.84

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	83	84	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-7	18	16.2	16.9	-0.66	14.0	9.8	4.20
Charles Barkley	79	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.25	10	-6	16	16.4	15.8	0.63	13.1	14.6	-1.42
Matt Maloney	60	60	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-4	12	16.6	15.8	0.77	13.5	13.2	0.26
Hakeem Olajuwon	77	78	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	4	-4	16.7	14.8	1.81	14.0	10.9	3.05
Sam Mack	54	54	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	6	-8	16.0	16.7	-0.69	12.7	14.2	-1.49
Matt Bullard	49	48	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	-2	8	16.8	15.8	1.03	13.4	13.4	0.03
Kevin Willis	38	37	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	6	-8	15.3	16.9	-1.64	12.7	13.8	-1.13
Brent Price	18	20	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	4	-4	14.0	16.8	-2.81	13.4	13.4	0.06
Randy Livingston	27	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.25	-11	15	-26	17.1	16.0	1.19	12.6	13.7	-1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.91,0.88,0.93,0.84,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 80, PHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DET 96, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.86,0.92,1	95.1%
POR 109, DEN 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1	95.1%