NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	80		Excitement	4.1 [969]		MVP	George McCloud (DEN): +2.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	99		Comeback	1.1 [1030]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -10.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	11	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	48%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.03	22	55%	0.01	4	-0.11	7	57%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.00	-0.03	12	32%	-0.05	4	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	8	69%	0.09	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Pepe Sanchez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	11	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.01	0.05	24	62%	0.06	5	-0.09	12	67%	-0.02
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	25.4	14.8	24.5	2.0	27.3	120.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +26.8%

PHI +1.0%

PHI +12.3%

PHI +7.5%

PHI +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	15.1	15.2	15.5	83.3	105.3	100.9
season	15.2	15.7		101.4	101.4
opponent	15.5	15.2		97.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	14.0	16.7	15.5	15.1
PHI	13.2	16.1	15.2	16.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	20	21	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.09	-2	-17	15	12.2	15.9	-3.72	14.7	15.3	-0.65
Anthony Goldwire	34	33	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-16	13	14.3	15.6	-1.27	15.3	15.1	0.16
Ryan Bowen	6	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.17	-6	-13	7	11.8	15.4	-3.53	15.4	15.1	0.28
Kevin Willis	49	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-13	7	14.6	15.7	-1.05	16.1	14.2	1.95
George McCloud	59	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-16	13	13.9	17.1	-3.24	15.7	14.4	1.30
Voshon Lenard	45	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	-7	-5	16.1	14.3	1.82	14.9	15.4	-0.49
Antonio McDyess	76	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-9	-1	15.6	13.3	2.27	15.3	14.6	0.72
James Posey	73	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	-5	-9	16.2	11.8	4.42	15.4	14.4	0.91
Raef LaFrentz	47	45	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.12	-20	1	-21	16.2	14.2	2.01	14.1	16.1	-1.99
Nick Van Exel	71	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	0	-19	15.2	15.1	0.03	14.6	16.7	-2.06

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Iverson	86	88	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.07	21	-2	23	15.1	16.2	-1.18	15.2	14.7	0.43
Aaron McKie	76	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.13	21	-2	23	14.9	16.2	-1.23	15.5	13.6	1.89
Theo Ratliff	72	74	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.10	19	0	19	15.3	14.9	0.40	16.1	12.0	4.14
George Lynch	61	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	8	3	14.5	16.5	-1.98	15.9	13.9	1.98
Jumaine Jones	45	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	11	-3	15.0	15.3	-0.28	14.3	15.8	-1.53
Tyrone Hill	51	51	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	14	-9	15.5	14.7	0.83	16.5	13.7	2.78
Rodney Buford	25	27	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	17	-15	16.1	14.8	1.29	13.4	15.8	-2.37
Todd MacCulloch	18	20	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	18	-17	14.4	15.3	-0.90	12.4	15.9	-3.47
Nazr Mohammed	4	4	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.06	3	16	-13	19.0	15.0	4.00	8.5	15.4	-6.93
Pepe Sanchez	32	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	15	-11	15.9	14.8	1.12	13.7	15.9	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 74, MEM 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
CHA 89, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	95.7%
MIA 73, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%