NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	86		Excitement	6.8 [439]		MVP	Nick Anderson (ORL): +7.8%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	2.5 [913]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -15.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	18	59%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Jerome Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	5	40%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	13	72%	0.14	5	-0.16	6	100%	0.04
Tom Hammonds	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	8	33%	-0.07	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.08	0.04	9	68%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Brooks Thompson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	12	39%	-0.08	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	14	54%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	9	58%	0.07	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	9	55%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	12	59%	0.09	2	-0.05	13	54%	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	61%	0.04	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	15	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	7	21%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.4	21.3	16.8	27.0	2.5	30.6	122.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +16.9%

DEN -11.6%

ORL +4.1%

ORL +41.2%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	17.3	17.2	15.6	102.4	119.3	104.4
season	15.2	16.4		102.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		103.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	16.9	18.0	19.2	17.3
ORL	17.5	16.6	18.0	16.8	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	25	26	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.02	3	-16	19	17.5	17.2	0.32	17.7	17.0	0.67
Anthony Goldwire	52	51	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-11	9	17.2	17.4	-0.18	17.8	16.3	1.48
LaPhonso Ellis	68	68	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-11	9	16.5	20.9	-4.42	17.6	15.4	2.19
Brooks Thompson	29	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	-5	-3	19.0	16.4	2.60	15.8	17.9	-2.12
Dale Ellis	47	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-7	1	17.3	17.3	0.05	17.7	16.5	1.22
Bryant Stith	79	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-6	-1	16.4	31.4	-14.99	17.3	15.2	2.12
Jerome Allen	8	9	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-4	-5	20.4	17.0	3.40	17.2	17.2	0.03
Ervin Johnson	46	44	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	1	-15	17.8	16.7	1.02	16.6	17.9	-1.33
Antonio McDyess	66	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.08	-20	7	-27	17.7	15.7	2.08	16.6	19.0	-2.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	66	67	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.14	18	-5	23	16.4	20.2	-3.75	18.1	14.2	3.84
Nick Anderson	65	64	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.16	9	4	5	16.7	18.9	-2.24	18.0	15.0	3.02
Derek Strong	31	30	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	7	-1	18.4	16.5	1.96	16.6	17.7	-1.09
Gerald Wilkins	38	37	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	9	-5	18.4	16.2	2.27	16.6	17.9	-1.26
Brian Shaw	29	29	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	5	3	18.9	16.3	2.67	17.2	17.3	-0.09
Anfernee Hardaway	65	66	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	1	11	16.9	18.1	-1.17	18.0	14.8	3.21
Dennis Scott	50	53	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	9	-5	16.3	18.5	-2.25	16.6	18.5	-1.93
David Vaughn	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	11	-9	15.0	17.2	-2.25	8.7	17.6	-8.95
Brian Evans	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	11	-9	15.0	17.2	-2.25	8.7	17.6	-8.95
Darrell Armstrong	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	11	-9	19.0	17.2	1.83	8.0	17.5	-9.52
Rony Seikaly	66	66	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	15	-17	17.4	16.3	1.13	17.5	16.6	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 80, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.9,1	94.1%
MIL 87, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.79,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.8%
HOU 79, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,1	93.4%