NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	6.6 [467]		MVP	Grant Hill (DET): +17.6%
Charlotte Hornets	103		Comeback	1.1 [611]		LVP	Glen Rice (CHH): -19.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18	-0.01	0.18	-0.01	16	57%	0.20	1	-0.03	19	68%	0.01
Terry Mills	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	9	78%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	9	68%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	17	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Theo Ratliff	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	12	56%	-0.04	3	-0.08	12	75%	-0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	111%	0.15	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.01	16	61%	0.15	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	90%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	8	69%	0.10	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	14	48%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Tony Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.03	5	70%	0.02	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.09	0.02	17	48%	-0.12	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.5	22.4	14.8	28.2	2.5	43.4	135.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.7%

CHH -7.7%

CHH -8.4%

DET +30.8%

DET +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHH	NBA	DET	CHH	NBA
this game	16.2	14.2	15.6	116.0	107.3	104.4
season	17.1	15.7		107.6	108.0
opponent	16.0	16.2		106.5	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	16.2	17.5	15.9	16.2
CHH	15.0	13.8	13.9	14.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	48	51	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-5	16	15.2	17.2	-2.03	14.3	14.0	0.29
Lindsey Hunter	74	75	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-5	16	16.3	15.7	0.52	13.7	15.9	-2.21
Joe Dumars	77	77	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	-1	8	16.0	16.8	-0.74	14.2	14.0	0.22
Terry Mills	54	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	7	-8	16.5	15.6	0.89	14.2	14.1	0.05
Grant Hill	73	76	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	8	-10	16.3	15.6	0.76	14.4	13.3	1.04
Don Reid	63	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	1	4	16.2	16.1	0.05	14.3	13.9	0.45
Theo Ratliff	59	60	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	0	6	17.0	14.8	2.17	14.8	13.1	1.71
Michael Curry	22	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.11	-7	13	-20	14.7	16.6	-1.87	12.4	14.7	-2.35

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	9	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-5	4	14.8	14.1	0.66	13.2	16.5	-3.31
Scott Burrell	29	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-4	2	13.8	14.3	-0.55	16.0	16.2	-0.23
Tony Delk	36	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-5	4	13.9	14.4	-0.51	15.4	16.6	-1.21
Muggsy Bogues	20	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	3	-12	14.9	14.0	0.98	14.7	16.6	-1.86
Tony Smith	59	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-2	-2	14.3	14.0	0.24	16.0	16.3	-0.31
Dell Curry	63	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-7	8	13.6	15.3	-1.76	15.9	16.6	-0.66
Vlade Divac	88	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-5	4	14.2	13.6	0.60	16.5	12.1	4.41
Glen Rice	87	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	-1	-4	14.1	14.8	-0.66	16.5	13.2	3.31
Anthony Mason	89	88	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	2	-10	14.6	9.1	5.43	16.7	7.8	8.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.15,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 112, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.27,0.25,0.36,0.23,0.02,0	93.5%
POR 107, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.08,0,0,0	92.6%
PHX 93, PHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.17,0.27,0.35,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.18,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.09,0	92.6%