NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Bullets	104		Excitement	9.1 [111]		MVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): +31.1%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	2.4 [508]		LVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): -36.2%

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.24	0.04	0.19	-0.00	20	64%	0.36	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.04
Jaren Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	11	58%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Chris Whitney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12	0.03	-0.16	-0.00	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.18	3	100%	0.03
Gheorghe Muresan	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	8	35%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.36	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.36,-0.36	-0.17	-0.22	-0.02	26	40%	-0.12	5	-0.25	3	0%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.19	-0.00	14	74%	0.40	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.02	14	72%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.05	0.09	-0.03	12	54%	0.21	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.06
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	4	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.02	12	23%	-0.11	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.07	-0.23	-0.00	16	50%	-0.16	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.5	25.3	15.4	25.6	1.0	30.6	121.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -4.5%

DEN +17.4%

DEN +16.8%

DEN +19.5%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	14.0	15.6	104.0	106.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.2		104.3	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.8		108.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.8	13.6	15.4	14.7	14.8
DEN	13.0	13.1	13.4	16.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	68	67	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.07	13	-15	28	13.8	17.1	-3.33	13.6	14.8	-1.22
Chris Whitney	25	26	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.02	9	-11	20	12.5	15.6	-3.13	14.3	13.8	0.51
Jaren Jackson	53	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-7	12	15.0	14.6	0.36	13.0	15.1	-2.10
Calbert Cheaney	47	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	5	-12	14.6	15.0	-0.36	15.1	13.0	2.10
Tracy Murray	55	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.40	-3	1	-4	15.0	14.6	0.34	14.8	12.8	2.03
Juwan Howard	91	90	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.43	-7	5	-12	15.2	10.9	4.33	13.5	18.1	-4.59
Harvey Grant	86	86	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.42	-9	7	-16	15.2	12.8	2.38	14.2	12.6	1.54
Rod Strickland	75	74	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.42	-11	9	-20	15.6	12.5	3.13	13.8	14.3	-0.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	87	87	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.44	9	-7	16	13.8	15.2	-1.45	15.1	12.8	2.37
Ervin Johnson	58	59	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-8	18	13.8	14.3	-0.50	15.4	14.0	1.41
Ricky Pierce	63	65	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-5	12	13.8	14.2	-0.39	15.2	14.2	0.93
Dale Ellis	68	67	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	-1	4	14.1	13.6	0.51	14.8	14.8	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	70	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	-1	4	14.1	13.6	0.48	15.1	14.0	1.10
Tom Hammonds	31	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	5	-8	13.5	14.2	-0.61	14.5	15.0	-0.46
Kenny Smith	37	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	7	-12	14.2	13.8	0.39	14.2	15.2	-0.93
Antonio McDyess	73	74	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	9	-16	14.0	13.8	0.21	14.2	16.6	-2.41
Brooks Thompson	13	13	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	9	-16	15.2	13.8	1.45	12.8	15.1	-2.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.45,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 86, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.54,0.72,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.98,1	91.1%
BOS 96, ATL 100	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.68,0.53,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.85,1	90.8%
PHX 84, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.55,0.68,0.58,1	90.7%