NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	67		Excitement	6.2 [544]		MVP	Dennis Scott (ORL): +1.3%
Atlanta Hawks	78		Comeback	1.6 [756]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): -27.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	19	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	4	64%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	17	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Derek Strong	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	15	49%	0.01	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Gerald Wilkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	10	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ivano Newbill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	19	55%	0.09	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	12	54%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	15	40%	-0.07	2	-0.08	12	75%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.16	-0.08	0.03	10	21%	-0.22	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	26.0	15.7	28.9	0.2	30.2	128.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +14.5%

ORL -7.1%

ATL +42.5%

ATL +2.8%

ORL -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	18.0	17.5	15.6	82.7	96.3	104.4
season	16.4	16.4		102.9	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.5		100.3	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	21.2	16.9	19.3	15.6	18.0
ATL	17.7	18.1	21.8	13.7	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	26	25	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-10	9	14.0	19.9	-5.98	12.8	19.6	-6.79
Brian Shaw	31	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-12	13	16.7	18.9	-2.18	14.6	19.6	-4.99
Gerald Wilkins	48	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-8	5	18.6	17.2	1.32	19.1	15.4	3.70
Derek Strong	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	17.4	22.9	-5.47	17.3	19.5	-2.25
Nick Anderson	66	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	0	-11	18.3	16.8	1.50	18.1	15.0	3.11
Dan Schayes	35	36	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	1	-13	20.3	16.3	4.08	21.1	14.6	6.49
Dennis Scott	60	62	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-7	3	19.1	14.8	4.34	17.3	18.4	-1.16
Anfernee Hardaway	67	66	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.16	-17	6	-23	18.0	18.1	-0.14	17.7	16.9	0.82

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	61	60	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.09	20	-9	29	18.3	15.2	3.10	18.7	16.0	2.67
Christian Laettner	69	67	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.11	19	-8	27	18.4	12.4	6.00	18.3	16.6	1.67
Tyrone Corbin	70	70	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.12	14	-3	17	16.8	22.4	-5.59	18.4	15.8	2.55
Steven Smith	80	80	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	17.5	18.0	-0.47	17.7	44.0	-26.30
Dikembe Mutombo	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.08	14	-3	17	17.4	18.7	-1.33	17.8	19.9	-2.10
Ivano Newbill	11	11	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	14	-17	17.3	17.6	-0.30	16.9	18.2	-1.29
Eldridge Recasner	23	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.12	-9	20	-29	17.1	17.7	-0.62	17.3	18.3	-0.98
Henry James	20	21	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.09	-11	22	-33	16.0	18.0	-1.97	17.4	18.2	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.77,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, GSW 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.88,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
CLE 95, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.5%
HOU 128, GSW 132	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,1	93.3%