NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	97		Excitement	7.5 [329]		MVP	Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (SAC): +9.8%
Sacramento Kings	93		Comeback	4.6 [176]		LVP	Anthony Goldwire (CHH): -15.3%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	10	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.03
Tony Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	8	76%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	16	59%	0.12	1	-0.06	9	44%	-0.09
Glen Rice	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	18	57%	0.16	4	-0.14	10	90%	0.05
Vlade Divac	0.00	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.01
Rafael Addison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Zidek	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Anthony Goldwire	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	-0.00	18	61%	0.18	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	7	81%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	15	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	17	47%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	20	40%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	24.6	16.2	20.7	2.3	35.4	124.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +28.8%

CHH +25.9%

CHH +6.3%

SAC -10.6%

SAC -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	SAC	NBA	CHH	SAC	NBA
this game	15.2	16.1	15.6	104.3	102.2	104.4
season	15.7	15.4		108.0	102.4
opponent	15.4	16.0		106.0	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	15.5	13.5	17.8	14.8	15.2
SAC	15.1	14.8	19.2	15.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Muggsy Bogues	66	64	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-9	22	15.0	15.9	-0.96	17.0	13.8	3.25
Anthony Mason	86	85	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-7	18	15.3	14.4	0.89	16.4	10.7	5.78
Glen Rice	86	85	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-1	6	15.4	13.3	2.12	16.2	13.8	2.39
Vlade Divac	84	82	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	15.2	15.4	-0.22	16.5	12.1	4.39
Dell Curry	56	54	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	8	-12	14.8	15.9	-1.12	16.0	16.2	-0.21
Tony Smith	40	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	-1	6	16.2	14.5	1.76	16.5	15.7	0.81
George Zidek	9	9	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	4	-4	15.4	15.2	0.22	12.1	16.5	-4.39
Anthony Goldwire	24	23	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	10	-16	15.4	15.2	0.17	12.8	17.2	-4.39
Rafael Addison	14	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	12	-20	13.9	15.5	-1.64	12.2	16.6	-4.40

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	18	18	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-9	14	12.9	16.8	-3.89	14.9	15.3	-0.44
Billy Owens	54	55	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-6	8	15.2	17.3	-2.08	15.5	14.9	0.60
Michael Smith	55	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	0	-4	16.8	15.0	1.76	15.5	14.8	0.76
Tyus Edney	34	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	5	-14	16.1	16.0	0.08	16.1	14.7	1.37
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-9	14	15.8	16.6	-0.85	14.7	16.1	-1.37
Corliss Williamson	43	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-2	0	15.5	16.6	-1.05	14.7	15.7	-1.03
Kevin Gamble	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.41	-1	-3	2	15.8	16.5	-0.72	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Mitch Richmond	61	63	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	3	-10	17.1	14.0	3.08	15.5	14.7	0.86
Olden Polynice	73	75	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.35	-9	5	-14	16.8	12.9	3.89	15.3	14.9	0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.82,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 106, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.21,0.03,0.08,0	92.4%
TOR 89, WAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.15,0.32,0.08,0	91.4%
SAC 116, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.26,0	91.3%