NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	116		Excitement	9.6 [68]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +18.4%
Toronto Raptors	113		Comeback	2.4 [497]		LVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (TOR): -18.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.18,0.18	0.06	0.12	0.00	17	61%	0.26	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.05
Doug Christie	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17	0.06	0.11	-0.00	8	82%	0.24	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Gerald Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Scot Pollard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	54%	-0.01	1	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	11	56%	-0.01	2	-0.15	5	100%	0.06
Bobby Jackson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	11	39%	-0.08	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Chris Webber	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	18	57%	-0.04	4	-0.13	18	83%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	6	85%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	12	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Eric Montross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.1,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	12	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.02	19	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Keon Clark	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	0.03	10	54%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	2	71%	0.02	4	-0.17	3	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.14	-0.01	11	52%	0.02	3	-0.21	5	80%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	8	35%	-0.11	1	-0.08	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	36.2	16.7	29.2	2.6	35.7	149.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +19.7%

SAC +22.9%

SAC +8.9%

TOR -0.4%

TOR -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	13.0	15.5	15.6	114.9	111.9	102.3
season	14.2	16.2		106.6	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.5		100.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.6	13.5	14.3	11.9	13.0
TOR	14.1	15.9	14.5	17.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.53	11	-8	19	13.0	13.1	-0.05	15.5	15.4	0.19
Chris Webber	97	97	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.35	9	-6	15	12.9	15.5	-2.57	15.6	12.5	3.11
Doug Christie	98	99	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-5	13	12.9	17.3	-4.44	15.5	12.5	3.05
Vlade Divac	66	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-3	9	13.5	12.2	1.31	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Mike Bibby	81	81	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	2	-1	13.4	11.4	1.97	15.0	17.2	-2.20
Gerald Wallace	7	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.03	1	2	-1	12.7	13.1	-0.34	17.9	15.3	2.55
Scot Pollard	37	36	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	9	-15	13.1	13.0	0.17	15.7	15.4	0.33
Bobby Jackson	49	48	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.12	-15	18	-33	12.2	13.8	-1.56	15.4	15.6	-0.17

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	61	59	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.13	6	-9	15	15.3	15.7	-0.36	11.9	14.5	-2.60
Eric Montross	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-3	3	13.7	15.6	-1.93	9.3	13.3	-3.93
Jerome Williams	52	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-3	3	15.0	16.0	-0.96	13.5	12.6	0.93
Morris Peterson	53	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-8	13	15.2	15.8	-0.62	12.7	13.4	-0.74
Chris Childs	44	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.29	4	-7	11	16.5	14.7	1.72	12.5	13.4	-0.86
Alvin Williams	67	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	0	-3	14.4	17.5	-3.08	13.2	12.6	0.58
Vince Carter	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-5	2	-7	15.4	15.8	-0.45	13.5	12.0	1.53
Dell Curry	43	46	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-4	5	16.8	14.5	2.23	12.7	13.3	-0.57
Antonio Davis	60	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.32	-5	2	-7	16.3	14.3	1.93	13.7	11.9	1.80
Keon Clark	48	50	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.24	-18	15	-33	15.4	15.6	-0.25	13.6	12.5	1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 97, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.82,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.26,0.21,0.23,0.08,0	91.3%
SAC 98, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.5,0.43,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.15,0.28,0	91.1%
ORL 90, CHA 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.63,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.2,0.16,0	90.8%